MODELING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC WARMING ON WINTER CEREAL DEVELOPMENT
MODELING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC WARMING ON WINTER CEREAL DEVELOPMENT
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DOI：
10.1016/0168-1923(92)90017-x
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发表时间：
1992-12-31
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
MORISON, JIL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BUTTERFIELD, RE;MORISON, JIL
气候变化的预测建议修改温带作物的发育日历，特别是那些在冬季生长的作物。AFRC-小麦发育模型分别与爱丁堡和牛津的92年和105年的每日温度记录一起使用，以研究模拟冬小麦发育对过去年际温度变化和任意温度变化的敏感性。该模型由积温驱动，但受春化要求和光周期反应的影响。利用历史数据，从播种到双棱期和开花期的持续时间与平均温度近似线性相关，并且在爱丁堡的北方站点比在牛津更敏感。播种至成熟期与季节平均气温的相关性很弱。这是因为季节内温度的时间进程在决定发育速率方面至关重要，因此具有相同平均温度的季节可以显示非常不同的小麦发育日历。这强调了当前气候情景的局限性，农业影响预测的季节细节很少。该模型似乎不适用于温度低于1摄氏度的妈妈比目前在爱丁堡的条件。任意升温2和4摄氏度导致生长季节大幅缩短（爱丁堡分别缩短30和49天），这意味着潜在产量的重大损失，除非修改品种或播种日期，使发育日历与日照模式相适应。
Predictions of climate change suggest modification of developmental calendars for temperate crops, particularly those grown over winter. The AFRC-Wheat developmental model was used with 92 and 105 year daily temperature records from Edinburgh and Oxford, respectively, to examine the sensitivity of modelled winter wheat development to both past interannual temperature variations and arbitrary temperature changes. The model is driven by accumulated temperatures, but modified by vernalization requirement and photoperiod responses. Using the historic data, the duration from sowing to the stages of double-ridges and anthesis is approximately linearly related to mean temperature, and is more responsive at the northern site of Edinburgh than at Oxford. The duration from sowing to maturity is only weakly related to seasonal mean temperature. This is because the time course of temperatures within the season is critical in determining development rates, therefore seasons with equivalent mean temperatures can show very different wheat development calendars. This emphasizes the limitations of current climatic scenarios with little seasonal detail for agricultural impact predictions. The model does not appear to work with temperatures mom than 1-degrees-C lower than present conditions at Edinburgh. Arbitrary warming by 2 and 4-degrees-C resulted in substantial shortening of the growing season (by 30 and 49 days at Edinburgh), implying major losses of potential yield, unless varieties or sowing dates are modified so that the development calendar is fitted to the insolation pattern.