Modelling Research Policy: Ex-Ante Evaluation of Complex Policy Instruments
Modelling Research Policy: Ex-Ante Evaluation of Complex Policy Instruments
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DOI：
10.18564/jasss.2927
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发表时间：
2015-10-31
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Gilbert, Nigel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ahrweiler, Petra;Schilperoord, Michel;Gilbert, Nigel
本文提出了基于代理的模型INFSO-Skin，它为欧盟委员会的DG信息社会和媒体(DG INFSO)提供了对Horizon 2020可能的资金政策的事前评估。建立模拟模型的目的是复制和评估委员会框架7方案的筹资战略、受资助的组织和项目以及由此产生的网络结构。为了解决DG INFSO的评估问题，该模型在没有任何政策变化的情况下外推到未来，作为进一步实验的循证基准。对照这一基线设想，测试了以下政策变化的实例：(1)如果方案的主题范围发生变化怎么办？(2)如果筹资手段发生变化怎么办？(3)如果方案供资总额发生变化怎么办？(4)如果在增加中小型企业(SME)参与率方面有变化，情况会怎样？这些模拟实验的结果揭示了一些可能的情景，作为地平线2020的政策选择。因此，这篇论文表明，具有密切数据与模型联系的现实建模可以直接提供政策建议。
This paper presents the agent-based model INFSO-SKIN, which provides ex-ante evaluation of possible funding policies in Horizon 2020 for the European Commission's DG Information Society and Media (DG INFSO). Informed by a large dataset recording the details of funded projects, the simulation model is set up to reproduce and assess the funding strategies, the funded organisations and projects, and the resulting network structures of the Commission's Framework 7 (FP7) programme. To address the evaluative questions of DG INFSO, this model, extrapolated into the future without any policy changes, is taken as an evidence-based benchmark for further experiments. Against this baseline scenario the following example policy changes are tested: (i) What if there were changes to the thematic scope of the programme? (ii) What if there were changes to the instruments of funding? (iii) What if there were changes to the overall amount of programme funding? (iv) What if there were changes to increase Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) participation? The results of these simulation experiments reveal some likely scenarios as policy options for Horizon 2020. The paper thus demonstrates that realistic modelling with a close data-to-model link can directly provide policy advice.