Investigating Impacts of Alternative Crop Market Scenarios on Land Use Change with an Agent-Based Model
Investigating Impacts of Alternative Crop Market Scenarios on Land Use Change with an Agent-Based Model
复制标题
使用基于代理的模型研究替代作物市场情景对土地利用变化的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Secchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Deng Ding;D. Bennett;S. Secchi
我们开发了一个基于代理的模型（ABM）来模拟农民对作物类型和化肥施用的决策，以应对商品和生物燃料作物价格。农场利润最大化的限制，农民的利润预期的土地承诺生物燃料作物生产的决策规则。表征农民利润预期的经验参数来自农业土地所有者和经营者调查，并纳入ABM。ABM中作物生产成本模型和调查信息的整合对于产生模拟至关重要，模拟可以为农业土地利用规划和政策制定提供现实的见解。模型模拟运行与历史市场价格和替代市场情景的玉米价格，大豆玉米价格比，柳枝稷价格，柳枝稷玉米秸秆比。模拟的耕地百分比和作物轮作与卫星土地覆盖数据的比较结果表明，农民可能低估了连续玉米生产对产量的影响。根据对爱荷华州东部Clear Creek流域的农业土地所有者和经营者的调查，对替代市场情景的模拟结果表明，农民认为以多年生草或玉米秸秆形式生产纤维素生物燃料原料比他们目前的作物生产系统风险更大，可能是因为市场和生产风险以及锁定效应。因此，农民不遵循简单的农场利润最大化规则。
We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate farmers’ decisions on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and biofuel crop prices. Farm profit maximization constrained by farmers’ profit expectations for land committed to biofuel crop production was used as the decision rule. Empirical parameters characterizing farmers’ profit expectations were derived from an agricultural landowners and operators survey and integrated in the ABM. The integration of crop production cost models and the survey information in the ABM is critical to producing simulations that can provide realistic insights into agricultural land use planning and policy making. Model simulations were run with historical market prices and alternative market scenarios for corn price, soybean to corn price ratio, switchgrass price, and switchgrass to corn stover ratio. The results of the comparison between simulated cropland percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects that continuous corn production has on yields. The simulation results for alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed in eastern Iowa show that farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form of perennial grasses or corn stover as a more risky enterprise than their current crop production systems, likely because of market and production risks and lock in effects. As a result farmers do not follow a simple farm-profit maximization rule.