Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression
Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1312114110
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发表时间：
2014-01-07
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Scheffer, Marten
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
van de Leemput, Ingrid A.;Wichers, Marieke;Scheffer, Marten
大约17%的人在一生中的某个时候经历过严重抑郁症。尽管这种失能性疾病的社会成本巨大，但如何评估陷入抑郁发作的可能性在很大程度上是未知的。在这里，我们显示了一大群健康的个人和患者，即将到来的抑郁和正常状态之间的转变的概率与升高的时间自相关性，方差和自动记录的情绪波动之间的相关性。这些都是临界减速的一般现象的指标，当系统接近临界点时，预计会发生这种现象。我们的研究结果支持这一假设，情绪可能有替代的稳定状态分离的临界点，并提出了一种方法来评估过渡到抑郁症和抑郁症的可能性。
About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.