Continental synchrony and local responses: Climatic effects on spatiotemporal patterns of calving in a social ungulate
Continental synchrony and local responses: Climatic effects on spatiotemporal patterns of calving in a social ungulate
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DOI：
10.1002/ecs2.4399
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发表时间：
2023-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Gurarie, Eliezer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Couriot, Ophelie H.;Cameron, Matthew D.;Gurarie, Eliezer
气候变暖和春季提前正在影响北极和北方地区的年度冰雪循环以及植物物候。这些变化可能与观察到的野生动物数量下降有关，包括北极环境中的一个关键物种-荒地驯鹿。我们量化了贫瘠的驯鹿，特点是群居和迁徙，同步出生的时间和聚集出生的空间，并研究了这些策略是如何受到多变的天气条件的影响。我们分析了运动模式，以推断产犊日期为747领雌性驯鹿从7个牛群在整个北方北美，共1255产犊事件超过15年的时间。通过将这些事件与产犊前1年期间的当地天气条件相关联，我们研究了天气如何影响产犊时间和驯鹿到达中央产犊区的能力。我们记录了大陆范围内产犊的同步性，但特定年份单个牛群内的同步性最大。怀孕前和怀孕期间的天气条件对产犊的时间和地点有相反的影响。值得注意的是，冬季和春季的不利天气条件，包括产犊前的迁移，导致了晚到达产犊区或未能及时到达更大的产犊区进行产犊。虽然当地的天气条件影响产犊时间不同的牛群，温暖的温度和低风速，这是与软，深雪，在春季和产犊前的迁移，一般影响的能力，女性驯鹿到达中央产犊地区的时间，分娩。延迟产犊可能会产生潜在的间接后果，包括小牛存活率降低。总的来说，我们检测到相当大的变化，跨年和跨畜群，但没有显着的趋势，早期产犊驯鹿，即使广泛的指标春季和积雪物候趋势早。我们的研究结果强调了监测产犊时间和地点的重要性，并研究了夏季和冬季的天气如何影响产犊和随后的繁殖成功。
Warming temperatures and advancing spring are affecting annual snow and ice cycles, as well as plant phenology, across the Arctic and boreal regions. These changes may be linked to observed population declines in wildlife, including barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a key species of Arctic environments. We quantified how barren-ground caribou, characteristically both gregarious and migratory, synchronize births in time and aggregate births in space and investigated how these tactics are influenced by variable weather conditions. We analyzed movement patterns to infer calving dates for 747 collared female caribou from seven herds across northern North America, totaling 1255 calving events over a 15-year period. By relating these events to local weather conditions during the 1-year period preceding calving, we examined how weather influenced calving timing and the ability of caribou to reach their central calving area. We documented continental-scale synchrony in calving, but synchrony was greatest within an individual herd for a given year. Weather conditions before and during gestation had contrasting effects on the timing and location of calving. Notably, a combination of unfavorable weather conditions during winter and spring, including the pre-calving migration, resulted in a late arrival on the calving area or a failure to reach the greater calving area in time for calving. Though local weather conditions influenced calving timing differently among herds, warm temperatures and low wind speed, which are associated with soft, deep snow, during the spring and pre-calving migration, generally affected the ability of female caribou to reach central calving areas in time to give birth. Delayed calving may have potential indirect consequences, including reduced calf survival. Overall, we detected considerable variability across years and across herds, but no significant trend for earlier calving by caribou, even as broad indicators of spring and snow phenology trend earlier. Our results emphasize the importance of monitoring the timing and location of calving, and to examine how weather during summer and winter are affecting calving and subsequent reproductive success.