Global burden of cancer attributable to high body-mass index in 2012: a population-based study.
Global burden of cancer attributable to high body-mass index in 2012: a population-based study.
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DOI：
10.1016/s1470-2045(14)71123-4
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发表时间：
2015-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Soerjomataram I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Arnold M;Pandeya N;Byrnes G;Renehan PAG;Stevens GA;Ezzati PM;Ferlay J;Miranda JJ;Romieu I;Dikshit R;Forman D;Soerjomataram I
身体质量指数（BMI）过高与癌症风险增加有关。为了为公共卫生政策和未来的研究提供信息，我们估计了BMI过高导致的全球癌症负担。人口归因分数（PAFs）是根据年龄、性别和国家对成年人的相对风险和BMI估计得出的。假设有10年的滞后期，paf是根据2002年的BMI估计来计算的。GLOBOCAN2012用于计算因BMI过高导致的新发癌症病例数。在另一种情况下，假设人口保持1982年观察到的bmi水平，我们计算了潜在可避免癌症的比例。进行二次分析以检验模型并估计激素替代疗法（HRT）和吸烟的影响。在全球范围内，我们估计2012年所有新发癌症病例中有48.1万例或3.6%可归因于BMI过高。女性的paf高于男性（5.4%比1.9%）。与人类发展指数中等和较低的国家（人类发展指数分别为1.6%和1.0%）相比，负担集中在人类发展指数很高和很高的国家（HDI, PAF: 5.3%和4.8%）。子宫体癌、绝经后乳腺癌和结肠癌约占超重BMI可归因于癌症的三分之二（64%）。2012年所有与超重BMI有关的病例中，有四分之一（约11.8万）可归因于1982年以来BMI的上升。这些发现进一步表明，有必要在全球范围内采取措施，遏制人口超重趋势的上升。假设超重BMI和癌症之间的关系是因果关系，并且目前人口体重增加的模式继续下去，这可能会增加未来癌症的负担。世界癌症研究基金会、玛丽·柯里奖学金、澳大利亚国家卫生和医学研究委员会以及美国国立卫生研究院。
Excess body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased risk of cancer. To inform public health policyand future research, we estimated the global burden of cancer attributable to excess BMI. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were derived using relative risks and BMI estimates in adults by age, sex and country. Assuming a10-year lag-period, PAFs were calculated using BMI estimates in 2002. GLOBOCAN2012 was used to compute numbers of new cancer cases attributable to excess BMI. In an alternative scenario, we computed the proportion of potentially avoidable cancers assuming that populations maintained their BMI-level observed in 1982. Secondary analyses were performed to test the model and estimate the impactof hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and smoking. Worldwide, we estimated that 481,000 or 3·6% of all new cancer cases in 2012 were attributable to excess BMI. PAFs were greater in women compared with men (5·4% versus 1·9%). The burden was concentrated in countries with very high and high human development index (HDI, PAF: 5·3% and 4·8%) compared with countries with moderate and low HDI (PAF: 1·6% and 1·0%). Corpus uteri, post-menopausal breast and colon cancers accounted for approximately two-thirds (64%) of excess BMI attributable cancers. One fourth (~118,000) of all cases related to excess BMI in 2012 could be attributed to the rising BMI since 1982. These findings further underpin the need for a global effort to abate the rising trends in population-level excess weight. Assuming that the relationship between excess BMI and cancer is causal and the current pattern of population weight gain continues, this will likely augment the future burden of cancer. World Cancer Research Fund, Marie Currie Fellowship, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia and US NIH.