Per capita carbon emissions convergence in developing Asia: A century of evidence from covariate unit root test with endogenous structural breaks
Per capita carbon emissions convergence in developing Asia: A century of evidence from covariate unit root test with endogenous structural breaks
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105326
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发表时间：
2021-07
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Takashi Matsuki;L. Pan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Takashi Matsuki;L. Pan
许多研究涉及人均二氧化碳排放量的趋同问题。然而，初始人均排放水平较低的国家能否“赶上”排放密集型国家，还是个未知数。本研究利用1907年以来的历史CO2排放数据，对中国、印度尼西亚、印度、缅甸、菲律宾、台湾、泰国等7个亚洲发展中经济体的人均CO2排放量是否在长期内赶上或接近美国进行了调查。我们同时检查人均二氧化碳排放量收敛的存在和统计贡献的排放驱动程序使用最近开发的协变量增广的Dickey-Fuller检验，它允许内生结构性断裂。主要结果显示，亚洲经济体和美国在人均二氧化碳排放量方面正在追赶或相对/绝对趋同。人口和真实的人均GDP增长等排放驱动因素可能会鼓励亚洲经济体实现并保持向参考国的长期趋同。
Many studies address the convergence in per capita CO2 emissions. However, whether countries with lower initial per capita emission levels can “catch up” with more emission-intensive countries is unknown. Utilising historical CO2 emission data from 1907, this study investigates whether the per capita CO2 emissions of seven developing Asian economies; namely, China, Indonesia, India, Myanmar, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand, catch up with or converge toward that of the US in the long run. We simultaneously examine the existence of per capita CO2 emissions convergence and the statistical contribution of the emissions drivers using the most recently developed covariate augmented Dickey-Fuller test, which allows for endogenous structural breaks. The main results show firm evidence of catching-up or relative/absolute convergence between the Asian economies and the US in terms of per capita CO2 emissions. Emissions drivers such as population and real GDP per capita growth may encourage the Asian economies to achieve and to maintain the long-run convergence toward the reference country.