Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions
Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1322280111
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发表时间：
2014-02-25
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Weaver, Christopher P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Georgescu, Matei;Morefield, Philip E.;Weaver, Christopher P.
结合2100年美国几个不同的城市扩张未来的建模结果表明，在没有任何适应性城市设计的情况下，大都市扩张，单独和独立于温室气体引起的强迫，可以预期将近地表温度提高1-2摄氏度不仅在单个城市的规模上，而且在该国的大片区域。这种变暖是全球气候模式模拟的21世纪世纪温室气体引起的气候变化的重要组成部分。使用一套区域气候模拟，我们评估了通常提出的城市适应策略，如绿色，凉爽的屋顶，和混合方法，以改善变暖的有效性。我们的研究结果量化了城市规划和设计中的明智选择不仅可以抵消城市扩张本身的气候影响，而且实际上甚至可以抵消未来大规模温室效应的很大一部分。我们的研究结果还揭示了一些地区不同适应方案之间的权衡，表明需要地理上合适的战略，而不是一刀切的解决方案。
Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1-2 degrees C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions.