Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050
Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050
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1900年至2050年生物多样性和生态系统服务的全球趋势
DOI：
10.1101/2020.04.14.031716
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
...Hasegawa Tomoko at el.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pereira Henrique M.;Rosa Isabel M.D.;Martins Ines S.;Kim HyeJin;Leadley Paul;...Hasegawa Tomoko at el.
基于广泛的模型比对，我们根据土地利用和气候变化的历史重建和未来情景评估了生物多样性和生态系统服务的趋势。根据一系列指标估计，20 世纪全球生物多样性下降了 2% 至 11%。提供生态系统服务增加数倍，调节服务适度减少。展望未来，可持续发展政策有可能减缓因土地利用变化和供应服务需求而导致的生物多样性丧失，同时减少或扭转监管服务的下降。然而，气候变化对生物多样性的负面影响似乎将会增加，特别是在高排放情况下。我们的评估确定了剩余的建模不确定性，但也有力地表明，需要采取新的政策努力来实现《生物多样性公约》的目标。
Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.