Analysing and forecasting the diffusion of electronic payments system in Nigeria
Analysing and forecasting the diffusion of electronic payments system in Nigeria
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尼日利亚电子支付系统的普及分析和预测
DOI：
10.1080/09537325.2021.1950675
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
ADUBA Joseph Jr. ASAGRI Behrooz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yoshihiro Takadate;Tatsunari Kondoh;Manabu Igarashi;Junki Maruyama;Rashid Manzoor;Hirohito Ogawa;Masahiro Kajihara;Wakako Furuyama;Masahiro Sato;Hiroko Miyamoto;Reiko Yoshida;Terence E. Hill;Alexander N. Freiberg;Heinz Feldmann;Andrea Marzi,;ADUBA Joseph Jr.;ADUBA Joseph Jr. and IZAWA Hiroshi;ADUBA Joseph Jr. ASAGRI Behrooz
电子支付系统是最近的服务创新之一，它改变了发展中国家和新兴经济体的融资渠道。本文对ATM、PoS、移动支付和网络支付这四种主要电子支付技术在尼日利亚的普及进行了分析和预测。扩散是通过这些技术交易的金融支付量来衡量的。首先，我们应用两种增长模型来评估这些支付技术的扩散并预测未来的轨迹。其次，我们应用物流替代模型来评估这些技术如何在尼日利亚支付市场中竞争。研究结果表明，与许多技术创新一样，电子支付技术的传播具有增长、成熟、饱和和衰退的特点。此外，考虑到该平台上将发生的金融交易量，移动支付系统预计将成为最广泛的支付技术。这些发现对尼日利亚支付生态系统内的创新者、监管机构和服务提供商具有重要意义。研究结果对于尼日利亚国家实现无现金经济和金融普惠项目也具有实际意义，这些项目依赖于这些技术的成功传播。
The electronic payments system is among recent service innovations that have transformed access to finance in developing and emerging economies. This paper analyses and forecasts the diffusions of four major electronic payment technologies in Nigeria, namely, ATM, PoS, Mobile and Web payments. Diffusion was measured by the volume of financial payments transacted on these technologies. First, we applied two growth models to evaluate the diffusion and to forecast the future trajectories of these payment technologies. Second, we applied the logistics substitution model to evaluate how these technologies compete in the Nigerian payments market. The findings show that like many technological innovations the diffusions of electronic payment technologies are characterised by growth, maturity, saturation, and decline. In addition, the mobile payment system was forecast to emerge as the most diffused payment technology given the volume of financial exchange that will occur on this platform. These findings have implications for innovators, regulators and service providers within the Nigerian payment ecosystems. The findings also have practical implication for achieving the cashless economy and the financial inclusion projects of the Nigerian state which rely on the successful diffusions of these technologies.