CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability
CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/acea96
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发表时间：
2023-07
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
P. Monerie;J. Robson;Cassien D Ndiaye;Cenyao Song;A. Turner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Monerie;J. Robson;Cassien D Ndiaye;Cenyao Song;A. Turner
季风影响着世界三分之二人口的经济、农业和人类健康。因此，预测季风降水的变化具有重要的社会意义。我们探索的能力，从第六阶段的气候模式相互比较项目预测夏季季风降水变率的气候模式，使用十年期气候预测项目（组件A）的后报。多模式集合平均对未来1年至6-9年的夏季风降水有较好的预报能力。然而，这种技能是依赖于模式，季风域，和前置时间。一般来说，多模型整体平均预测的技能在第1年较低，但在较长的提前期内会有所增加，并且在很大程度上与外部强制变化一致。对于2-5年和6-9年的预测提前期，最佳捕获区域是北方非洲。相比之下，有没有显着的技能，使用整体均值在东亚和南亚，此外，有显着的传播技能模型，这些领域。通过对集合进行二次采样，我们发现模型之间的技能差异与东亚和南亚外部强迫响应的模拟有关，具有更熟练的强迫响应的模型能够更好地预测。另一个贡献是在较长的提前时间内为南亚夏季风巧妙地预测太平洋温度。因此，这些结果表明，东亚和南亚季风的预测可以显着改善。
Monsoons affect the economy, agriculture, and human health of two thirds of the world’s population. Therefore, predicting variations in monsoon precipitation is societally important. We explore the ability of climate models from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project to predict summer monsoon precipitation variability by using hindcasts from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Component A). The multi-model ensemble-mean shows significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation from one year to 6–9 years ahead. However, this skill is dependent on the model, monsoon domain, and lead-time. In general, the skill of the multi-model ensemble-mean prediction is low in year 1 but increases for longer-lead times and is largely consistent with externally forced changes. The best captured region is northern Africa for the 2–5 and 6–9 year forecast lead times. In contrast, there is no significant skill using the ensemble-mean over East and South Asia and, furthermore, there is significant spread in skill among models for these domains. By sub-sampling the ensemble we show that the difference in skill between models is tied to the simulation of the externally forced response over East and South Asia, with models with a more skilful forced response capable of better predictions. A further contribution is from skilful prediction of Pacific Ocean temperatures for the South Asian summer monsoon at longer lead-times. Therefore, these results indicate that predictions of the East and South Asian monsoons could be significantly improved.