Detecting and Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change.
Detecting and Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change.
复制标题
检测并将健康负担归因于气候变化。
DOI：
10.1289/ehp1509
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发表时间：
2017-08-07
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Woodward A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ebi KL;Ogden NH;Semenza JC;Woodward A
气候变化对健康影响的检测和归因使用形式方法来确定a）不良健康结果的发生是否发生了变化，b）这种变化的程度可归因于气候变化。在健康中进行检测和归因分析的努力有限。
我们的目标是展示进行检测和归因分析的一系列方法。
北欧热浪，加拿大莱姆病和颤音出现的案例研究强调了气候变化对人类健康的不利影响。检测到不良健康结果的比率和地理分布的变化，在每种情况下，在我们的判断中，观察到的变化的一部分可能归因于与气候变化相关的天气模式的变化。
检测和归因研究的结果可以为基于证据的风险管理提供信息，以减少与气候变化相关的健康风险的变化，并计划未来。更好地了解疾病和伤害的气候变化负担的规模，时机和分布需要可靠的长期数据集，更多有关混淆和改变气候对健康影响的因素的知识以及分析技术的完善用于检测和归因。同时，在没有完整的数据和统计确定性的情况下，可能会取得重大进展：基于对基础过程的理解以及对健康，气候和其他人类井的其他决定因素的理解，有一个信息良好的判断的地方-存在。 https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp1509
Detection and attribution of health impacts caused by climate change uses formal methods to determine a) whether the occurrence of adverse health outcomes has changed, and b) the extent to which that change could be attributed to climate change. There have been limited efforts to undertake detection and attribution analyses in health. Our goal was to show a range of approaches for conducting detection and attribution analyses. Case studies for heatwaves, Lyme disease in Canada, and Vibrio emergence in northern Europe highlight evidence that climate change is adversely affecting human health. Changes in rates and geographic distribution of adverse health outcomes were detected, and, in each instance, a proportion of the observed changes could, in our judgment, be attributed to changes in weather patterns associated with climate change. The results of detection and attribution studies can inform evidence-based risk management to reduce current, and plan for future, changes in health risks associated with climate change. Gaining a better understanding of the size, timing, and distribution of the climate change burden of disease and injury requires reliable long-term data sets, more knowledge about the factors that confound and modify the effects of climate on health, and refinement of analytic techniques for detection and attribution. At the same time, significant advances are possible in the absence of complete data and statistical certainty: there is a place for well-informed judgments, based on understanding of underlying processes and matching of patterns of health, climate, and other determinants of human well-being. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1509