NeoKinema Deformation Model for the 2023 Update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
NeoKinema Deformation Model for the 2023 Update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
复制标题
用于美国国家地震灾害模型 2023 年更新的 NeoKinema 变形模型
DOI：
10.1785/0220220179
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
P. Bird
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zheng‐Kang Shen;P. Bird
我们为 2023 年国家地震灾害模型 (NSHM) 的更新开发了美国西部地区的地壳变形模型。运动学有限元代码 NeoKinema 用于描述地壳变形，包括断层上的长期滑动和断层外应变（弹性应变和永久应变）。三个不同的数据集——全球定位系统（GPS）速度、地质断层偏移率和地壳应力方向——被用来约束模型，并且太平洋相对于北美的板块构造旋转也强加在一些边界上。与2014年上次NSHM模型更新相比，GPS和地质断层数据得到了大幅更新，并且在数据和建模方法上都进行了新的修正，包括对历史大地震后震后形变造成的“幽灵瞬变”效应的修正，以及对根据独立数据估计的断层浅层蠕变的修正。根据这些模拟结果和卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带的板块构造模型，还计算了美国西部的长期地震活动率图；该地图独立于当地地震目录，因此可以进行回顾性和前瞻性测试。我们发现该地区的大部分地区都取得了良好的成功，但卡斯卡迪亚除外，该地区 45 年的仪器地震活动记录比我们长期模型的预测要安静得多。
We develop a crustal deformation model of the western conterminous United States for the 2023 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). The kinematic finite-element code NeoKinema is used to describe crustal deformation, including long-term slip on faults and off-fault strains (both elastic and permanent). Three different data sets—Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities, geological fault offset rates, and crustal stress orientations—are used to constrain the model, and the plate tectonic rotation of Pacific relative to North America is also imposed on some boundaries. Compared to the last NSHM model update in 2014, the GPS and geological fault data are substantially updated, and new corrections are implemented in both the data and modeling approach, including the correction of the “ghost transient” effect due to postseismic deformation following large historic earthquakes, and correction for shallow creep on faults estimated from independent data. Based on these modeling results and a plate tectonic model of the Cascadia subduction zone, a long-term seismicity rate map is also computed for the western United States; this map is independent of the local seismic catalog and can, therefore, be tested retrospectively as well as prospectively. We find good success in most of the region, except in Cascadia, where the 45 yr instrumental seismicity record is much quieter than the forecast of our long-term model.
影响因子：
13.6
作者：
Blisniuk K;Scharer K;Sharp WD;Burgmann R;Amos C;Rymer M
通讯作者：
Rymer M