Delay and Cycles
Delay and Cycles
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延迟和周期
DOI：
10.2307/2297849
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Douglas Gale
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Douglas Gale
当投资的盈利能力取决于经济活动的总体水平时，企业家有动机在经济衰退期间推迟投资。因此，内生延迟延长了从衰退中复苏的时间，并增强了繁荣的影响。本文描述了一个同时显示延迟和周期的动态模型，并发展了分析延迟在商业周期传播中的作用的方法。揭示了这个周期的一些有趣的特征。首先，延迟的影响是不对称的：它延长了复苏的时间，但不会延长衰退的时间。其次，延迟会增加幅度，通常会降低周期的频率。第三，它可以降低平均活动水平，但它是通过延长衰退、而不是降低周期幅度来实现这一效果的。然而，拖延的福利效应是模棱两可的。
When the profitability of investment depends on the general level of economic activity, entrepreneurs have an incentive to delay investments during a recession. Endogenous delay thus prolongs the recovery from a recession and heightens the effect of the boom. This paper describes a dynamic model that exhibits both delay and cycles and develops methods for analysing the role of delay in propogating business cycles. A number of interesting characteristics of the cycle are revealed. First, the effect of delay is asymmetric: it lengthens the recovery but not the downturn. Second, delay can increase the amplitude and typically reduces the frequency of the cycle. Third, it can reduce the average level of activity, but it achieves this effect by prolonging the recession rather than by reducing the amplitude of the cycle. The welfare effects of delay are ambiguous, however.
DOI：
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发表时间：
1987
期刊：
The American Economic Review
影响因子：
--
作者：
O. Blanchard;N. Kiyotaki
通讯作者：
O. Blanchard;N. Kiyotaki