Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake
Economic consequences of follow-up disasters: lessons from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake
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后续灾害的经济后果：2011 年东日本大地震的教训
DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105559
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Masashige Hamano Wessel N.Vermeulen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anastasios Evgenidis;Masashige Hamano Wessel N.Vermeulen
我们应用贝叶斯面板VAR（BPVAR）和DSGE方法来研究2011年东日本大地震的区域影响。我们将福岛事故后电力供应的持续下降与自然灾害造成的直接但更暂时的生产冲击分开。具体而言，我们估计了电力下降对该地区经济复苏的贡献。首先，我们估计一个BPVAR与工业生产，价格和贸易的区域层面的数据，以获得自然灾害冲击的脉冲响应。我们发现，所有地区都经历了贸易的强劲和持续下降，以及生产的长期中断。通货膨胀压力很大，但持续时间很短。其次，我们提出了一个DSGE模型，可以捕捉到关键的观察，从这个经验模型，并提供理论脉冲响应函数，区分立即生产冲击，从持久的电力供应冲击。第三，与理论模型的预测一致，通过基于BPVAR的条件预测进行的反事实分析表明，由于电力供应持续下降，日本各地区经济，特别是受灾地区的生产和贸易确实受到了损失。
We apply a Bayesian Panel VAR (BPVAR) and DSGE approach to study the regional effects of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. We disentangle the persistent fall in electricity supply following the Fukushima accident, from the immediate but more temporary production shock attributable to the natural disaster. Specifically, we estimate the contribution of the electricity fall on the regions economic recovery. First, we estimate a BPVAR with regional-level data on industrial production, prices, and trade, to obtain impulse responses of the natural disaster shock. We find that all regions experienced a strong and persistent decline in trade, and long-lasting disruptions on production. Inflationary pressures were strong but short-lived. Second, we present a DSGE model that can capture key observations from this empirical model, and provide theoretical impulse response functions that distinguish the immediate production shock, from the persistent electricity supply shock. Thirdly, in line with the predictions from the theoretical model, counterfactual analysis via conditional forecasts based on our BPVAR reveals that the Japanese regional economies, particularly the hit regions, did experience a loss in production and trade due to the persistent fall in electricity supply.