Predictions of Surface Solar Radiation on Tilted Solar Panels using Machine Learning Models: A Case Study of Tainan City, Taiwan
Predictions of Surface Solar Radiation on Tilted Solar Panels using Machine Learning Models: A Case Study of Tainan City, Taiwan
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DOI：
10.3390/en10101660
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发表时间：
2017-10
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Chih-Chiang Wei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chih-Chiang Wei
本文通过建立预测模型，估算太阳能电池板在不同倾角下接收的太阳辐照度和每小时的太阳辐射量，通过估算太阳能电池板的发电量来提高光伏发电系统的发电能力，从而提高其供电的可靠性。研究地点位于台湾南部的台南，由于其纬度约为23°，因此接受了充足的阳光。分别采用多层感知器（MLP）、随机森林（RF）、k近邻（kNN）和线性回归（LR）算法建立了4种地表太阳辐照度预测模型。预报范围为1 ~ 12 h。调查结果如下：第一，结合地面气象资料和太阳位置资料，有效地估算了太阳辐照度。其次，平均绝对误差在MLP中高于RF和kNN，LR具有最差的预测性能。第三，当太阳能电池板倾斜角为0°时，观测到的总太阳辐照度为每年156.2万w/m2（即，当倾角为20 ° ~ 22°时，年最高可达165.5万W/m2。当太阳能板倾斜角度为0°时的辐照度水平与当角度为41°时的辐照度水平几乎相同。综上所述，台南地区最佳的太阳能板倾角为20-22°。
In this paper, forecasting models were constructed to estimate surface solar radiation on an hourly basis and the solar irradiance received by solar panels at different tilt angles, to enhance the capability of photovoltaic systems by estimating the amount of electricity they generate, thereby improving the reliability of the power they supply. The study site was Tainan in southern Taiwan, which receives abundant sunlight because of its location at a latitude of approximately 23°. Four forecasting models of surface solar irradiance were constructed, using the multilayer perceptron (MLP), random forests (RF), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), and linear regression (LR), algorithms, respectively. The forecast horizon ranged from 1 to 12 h. The findings are as follows: first, solar irradiance was effectively estimated when a combination of ground weather data and solar position data was applied. Second, the mean absolute error was higher in MLP than in RF and kNN, and LR had the worst predictive performance. Third, the observed total solar irradiance was 1.562 million w/m2 per year when the solar-panel tilt angle was 0° (i.e., the non-tilted position) and peaked at 1.655 million w/m2 per year when the angle was 20–22°. The level of the irradiance was almost the same when the solar-panel tilt angle was 0° as when the angle was 41°. In summary, the optimal solar-panel tilt angle in Tainan was 20–22°.