Evaluation of the public health impacts of traffic congestion: a health risk assessment
Evaluation of the public health impacts of traffic congestion: a health risk assessment
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DOI：
10.1186/1476-069x-9-65
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发表时间：
2010-10-27
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
von Stackelberg, Katherine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Levy, Jonathan I.;Buonocore, Jonathan J.;von Stackelberg, Katherine
背景：交通拥堵是美国和世界各地城市地区的一个重要问题。以前的分析估计了拥堵的经济成本，与浪费的燃料和时间有关，但很少有量化的公共健康影响或确定这些影响如何与经济成本进行比较。此外，交通拥堵对经济和公众健康的影响的相对程度预计在城市地区之间会有很大差异，这是道路基础设施、人口密度和影响污染物形成的大气条件的函数，但这种可变性尚未得到探讨。方法：在本研究中，我们评估了环境暴露于细颗粒物对公共健康的影响（PM（2.5））浓度与预测的交通拥堵的正常情况相关联。我们使用交通需求模型评估了83个单独的城市区域，以估计2000年至2030年每个区域的拥堵程度。我们将交通量和速度数据与MOBILE 6模型联系起来，以表征由拥堵引起的PM（2.5）和颗粒前体物的排放，并使用源受体矩阵来评估这些排放对环境PM（2.5）浓度的影响。边际浓度变化与死亡率的浓度-响应函数有关，并采用统计生命值方法将影响货币化。我们估计PM的货币化价值2000年，这83个城市因交通拥堵而导致的死亡率约为310亿美元（2007年美元），而浪费的时间和燃料价值为600亿美元。在未来几年，经济影响会增加（到2030年超过1000亿美元），而公共卫生影响在2020年减少到130亿美元，然后在2030年增加到170亿美元，因为人口和拥堵增加，但每辆车的排放量降低。跨城市和年，公共健康的影响范围从一个数量级以上的经济impactions.Conclusions：我们的分析表明，拥堵的公共健康影响可能是足够大的幅度，至少在某些城市地区，在未来的评估政策，以减轻拥堵的好处被考虑。
Background: Traffic congestion is a significant issue in urban areas in the United States and around the world. Previous analyses have estimated the economic costs of congestion, related to fuel and time wasted, but few have quantified the public health impacts or determined how these impacts compare in magnitude to the economic costs. Moreover, the relative magnitudes of economic and public health impacts of congestion would be expected to vary significantly across urban areas, as a function of road infrastructure, population density, and atmospheric conditions influencing pollutant formation, but this variability has not been explored.Methods: In this study, we evaluate the public health impacts of ambient exposures to fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) concentrations associated with a business-as-usual scenario of predicted traffic congestion. We evaluate 83 individual urban areas using traffic demand models to estimate the degree of congestion in each area from 2000 to 2030. We link traffic volume and speed data with the MOBILE6 model to characterize emissions of PM(2.5) and particle precursors attributable to congestion, and we use a source-receptor matrix to evaluate the impact of these emissions on ambient PM(2.5) concentrations. Marginal concentration changes are related to a concentration-response function for mortality, with a value of statistical life approach used to monetize the impacts.Results: We estimate that the monetized value of PM(2.5)-related mortality attributable to congestion in these 83 cities in 2000 was approximately $31 billion (2007 dollars), as compared with a value of time and fuel wasted of $60 billion. In future years, the economic impacts grow (to over $100 billion in 2030) while the public health impacts decrease to $13 billion in 2020 before increasing to $17 billion in 2030, given increasing population and congestion but lower emissions per vehicle. Across cities and years, the public health impacts range from more than an order of magnitude less to in excess of the economic impacts.Conclusions: Our analyses indicate that the public health impacts of congestion may be significant enough in magnitude, at least in some urban areas, to be considered in future evaluations of the benefits of policies to mitigate congestion.