Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate.
Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12920
复制
发表时间：
2015-09
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Thomas JA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Roy DB;Oliver TH;Botham MS;Beckmann B;Brereton T;Dennis RL;Harrower C;Phillimore AB;Thomas JA
物候变化是气候变化生物影响最广泛引用的例子，但很少评估对个体生物体的适应性或种群持续存在的潜在影响。尽管有大量证据表明近几十年来气候驱动的物候事件取得了进展，但跨物种地理范围的可比较模式却很少被描述。量化物候和气候之间同时存在的空间梯度和时间趋势的研究就更少了。在这里，我们分析了英国超过 37 年的大型数据集（约 129,000 个物候测量值），首次对可塑性和局部适应在蝴蝶平均飞行日期的空间和时间模式生成中的相对作用进行系统发育比较分析。尽管所有物种的种群对温度都表现出可塑性反应，在温暖的年份，成虫羽化日期平均每摄氏度提前 6.4 天，但种群间的差异则明显较低，平均每摄氏度提前 4.3 天。大多数物种的出现日期在其地理范围内比根据平均飞行日期和随时间变化的温度之间的关系预测的更加同步，这表明当地的适应。物种的生物学特征只能弱地解释空间温度和时间温度物候反应之间差异的变化，这表明可能有多种机制来维持局部适应。由于生态位模型假设整个物种范围内的发生与环境条件之间存在恒定的关系，因此此处检测到的温度介导的局部适应的一个重要含义是，昆虫种群对未来气候变化的敏感度比当前的预测要高得多。
Phenology shifts are the most widely cited examples of the biological impact of climate change, yet there are few assessments of potential effects on the fitness of individual organisms or the persistence of populations. Despite extensive evidence of climate‐driven advances in phenological events over recent decades, comparable patterns across species' geographic ranges have seldom been described. Even fewer studies have quantified concurrent spatial gradients and temporal trends between phenology and climate. Here we analyse a large data set (~129 000 phenology measures) over 37 years across the UK to provide the first phylogenetic comparative analysis of the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial and temporal patterns in butterfly mean flight dates. Although populations of all species exhibit a plastic response to temperature, with adult emergence dates earlier in warmer years by an average of 6.4 days per °C, among‐population differences are significantly lower on average, at 4.3 days per °C. Emergence dates of most species are more synchronised over their geographic range than is predicted by their relationship between mean flight date and temperature over time, suggesting local adaptation. Biological traits of species only weakly explained the variation in differences between space‐temperature and time‐temperature phenological responses, suggesting that multiple mechanisms may operate to maintain local adaptation. As niche models assume constant relationships between occurrence and environmental conditions across a species' entire range, an important implication of the temperature‐mediated local adaptation detected here is that populations of insects are much more sensitive to future climate changes than current projections suggest.