Biomarker-based calibration of retrospective exposure predictions of perfluorooctanoic acid.
Biomarker-based calibration of retrospective exposure predictions of perfluorooctanoic acid.
复制标题
基于生物标记的全氟辛酸回顾性暴露预测校准。
DOI：
10.1021/es4053736
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Bartell,ScottM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shin,Hyeong-Moo;Steenland,Kyle;Ryan,PBarry;Vieira,VerónicaM;Bartell,ScottM
全氟辛酸（PFOA）的估计历史暴露量和血清浓度已被广泛用于流行病学研究，这些研究检查了俄亥俄州中部山谷高度暴露地区居民的PFOA暴露与不良健康结果之间的关联。使用2005-2006年测量的血清PFOA水平，我们对这些回顾性暴露预测应用了两种校准方法：（1）乘法校准和（2）贝叶斯药代动力学校准，对最近的暴露估计值进行较大调整，对过去几年的暴露估计值进行较小调整。我们对各种假设的暴露情景进行了模拟研究，并将假设的真实历史摄入率与基于错误指定的基线暴露和药代动力学模型的估计值进行了比较，以找到偏倚最小的方法。如果没有报告瓶装水消费量的变化，或者如果PFOA的半衰期被错误指定，贝氏方法优于乘法方法。另一方面，如果实际自来水消耗率被系统性高估，则乘法方法优于贝叶斯方法。如果自来水的消耗率随着时间的推移逐渐下降，因为瓶装水或其他液体的替代，没有一种方法明显优于另一种方法。使用最近收集的生物标志物校准回顾性暴露估计值可能有助于减少环境流行病学研究中的不确定性。
Estimated historical exposures and serum concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) have been extensively used in epidemiologic studies that examined associations between PFOA exposures and adverse health outcomes among residents in highly exposed areas in the Mid-Ohio Valley. Using measured serum PFOA levels in 2005–2006, we applied two calibration methods to these retrospective exposure predictions: (1) multiplicative calibration and (2) Bayesian pharmacokinetic calibration with larger adjustments to more recent exposure estimates and smaller adjustments to exposure estimates for years farther in the past. We conducted simulation studies of various hypothetical exposure scenarios and compared hypothetical true historical intake rates with estimates based on mis-specified baseline exposure and pharmacokinetic models to find the method with the least bias. The Bayesian method outperformed the multiplicative method if a change to bottled water consumption was not reported or if the half-life of PFOA was mis-specified. On the other hand, the multiplicative method outperformed the Bayesian method if actual tap water consumption rates were systematically overestimated. If tap water consumption rates gradually decreased over time because of substitution with bottled water or other liquids, neither method clearly outperformed another. Calibration of retrospective exposure estimates using recently collected biomarkers may help reduce uncertainties in environmental epidemiologic studies.