Public Investment under Fiscal Constraints
Public Investment under Fiscal Constraints
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1475-5890.2011.00126.x
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发表时间：
2011-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
7.3
通讯作者：
Missale, Alessandro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bacchiocchi, Emanuele;Borghi, Elisa;Missale, Alessandro
欧盟新成员国必须遵守《稳定与增长公约》和《里斯本议程》所暗示的投资目标。然而，小额赠款方案的规则可能导致投资不足或扭曲公共支出的分配。本文通过估算政府支出对公共债务和周期性条件的反应函数，为债务可持续性和小额赠款财政约束对OECD国家政府固定资本、教育和卫生支出的影响提供了新的证据。我们发现，在高水平的债务，政府资本支出和教育支出显着减少的债务比率增加，在所有经合组织国家独立的欧洲货币联盟（或欧盟）成员国。相比之下，低债务国家的资本支出和教育支出都不受债务比率的影响。这些研究结果是强大的政府赤字的估计反应功能。因此，欧盟国家的投资决定似乎更多地受到确保债务可持续性的需要的制约，而不是受到《稳定和增长条约》规则的制约。在低债务的NMS国家，公共投资甚至随着债务比率的增加而增加，这一发现对它们的增长前景是令人放心的。然而，当我们关注公共卫生和教育支出时，情况就不那么乐观了，因为随着赤字的增加，新成员国政府似乎削减了这类支出，即使债务水平很低。在控制总支出方面存在的问题，加上小额赠款方案的预防性部门，可能使国家管理系统的人力资本投资受到惩罚，而固定资本投资则不受影响。
The new member states (NMS) of the European Union must comply with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and the investment goals implied by the Lisbon Agenda. However, the SGP rules may result in underinvestment or distortions in the allocation of public expenditure. This paper provides new evidence on the effects of debt sustainability and the SGP fiscal constraints on government expenditure on fixed capital, education and health in OECD countries by estimating government expenditure reaction functions to public debt and cyclical conditions. We find that, at high levels of debt, government capital expenditure and education expenditure are significantly reduced as the debt ratio increases in all OECD countries independently of EMU (or EU) membership. By contrast, neither capital expenditure nor education expenditure is affected by the debt ratio in low-debt countries. These findings are robust to the inclusion of the government deficit in the estimated reaction functions. Hence, it appears that EU countries have been constrained in their investment decisions more by the need to ensure debt sustainability than by the rules of the SGP. In low-debt NMS countries, public investment even increases with the debt ratio, a finding that is reassuring for their growth prospects. However, a less optimistic picture emerges when we focus on expenditures on public health and education, as it appears that NMS governments cut such expenditures - even at low levels of debt - as the deficit increases. Problems in controlling total expenditure together with the preventive arm of the SGP may have penalised investment in human capital in the NMS while leaving fixed capital investment unaffected.