Modeling the nexus across water supply, power generation and environment systems using the system dynamics approach: Hehuang Region, China
Modeling the nexus across water supply, power generation and environment systems using the system dynamics approach: Hehuang Region, China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.10.011
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发表时间：
2016-12
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
M. Feng;Pan Liu;Zejun Li;Jingwen Zhang;Dedi Liu;L. Xiong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Feng;Pan Liu;Zejun Li;Jingwen Zhang;Dedi Liu;L. Xiong
Nexus方法解决了耦合系统之间复杂的相互联系，为识别协同进化过程的动力学提供了一种新的有效方法。供水、发电和环境（WPE）系统之间的连接越来越紧密，因此可以被描述为WPE关系。本文旨在利用系统动力学方法对河湟地区的水生态环境关系进行建模。六个非线性常微分方程的存储，供水，发电，人口，生物量和环境意识制定主导的协同进化过程。然后从观测数据中获得它们的本构关系，以完成WPE连结模型。研究结果表明，系统动力学方法能够较好地模拟河湟地区水生态系统的生态联系。共同进化过程分为四个循环阶段（即，开采、退化、萧条和恢复阶段），并在数千年后以静止循环结束。状态变量的动态显式解释，以显示不同的驱动变量如何影响系统状态的变化。通过对关系进行建模获得的观察结果很有见地，提高了对耦合系统之间相互作用的理解。
Nexus approaches address the complex interconnections across coupled systems, providing a new and effective way to identify the dynamics of coevolution process. The connections across water supply, power generation and environment (WPE) systems are increasingly tight and thus can be profiled as a WPE nexus. This paper aims to model the WPE nexus in the China’s Hehuang Region by using the system dynamics approach. Six nonlinear ordinary differential equations of storage, water supply, power generation, population, biomass, and environmental awareness are formulated to dominate the coevolution process. Their constitutive relations are then obtained from observed data to complete the WPE nexus model. The results show that the system dynamics approach is competent in modeling the WPE nexus of the Hehuang Region. The coevolution process is divided into four cyclic stages (i.e., exploitation, deterioration, depression and recovery stages) and terminates with a stationary cycling after thousands of years. The dynamics of state variables are explicitly interpreted to show how different driving variables affect the variations of system states. The observations obtained by modeling the nexus are insightful, improving the understanding of interactions across coupled systems.