Temporal trend of precipitation and runoff in major Chinese Rivers since 1951
Temporal trend of precipitation and runoff in major Chinese Rivers since 1951
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.07.002
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发表时间：
2010-09
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Kehui Xu;J. Milliman;Hui Xu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kehui Xu;J. Milliman;Hui Xu
为了更好地量化水文过程和评估人类活动在河流流量变化中的作用，计算并比较了中国主要河流的降水和径流趋势。中国160个气象站的资料表明，1951 ~ 2000年，南方降水量增加2%，北方降水量减少4%~ 11%。中国五大河流22个水文站的水文资料表明，同期珠江以南径流量增加了10%，而长江径流量变化不大。北方黄河、辽河和松花江流量分别减少了80%、54%和14%，根据Mann-Kendall趋势分析，均具有统计学显著性。珠江、长江年径流量与流域降水量相关系数分别为0.72和0.81。然而，来自北方“赤字”河流的径流量远远低于所显示的降水量，反映出严重的人类影响。子流域分析表明，在“过剩”长江南部的径流量增加超过降水量将建议，最有可能表明减少蓄水量，减少蒸散，或两者兼而有之。相反，北方子流域（包括北方长江和黄河中下游）径流量的显著减少反映了用水量的急剧增加。中国北方的水危机因降水量减少、人口增加一倍和取水量扩大而加剧，给水管理和经济发展带来压力。
Trend of precipitation and runoff in major Chinese rivers was calculated and compared in order to better quantify the hydrological processes and evaluate the role of human activities in changing river discharge. Records from 160 meteorological stations in China show that from 1951 to 2000 precipitation has increased (2%) in the south but decreased (4 to 11%) in the north. Hydrological data from 22 stations in five major Chinese rivers reveal that over the same period in the south runoff of Pearl River (Zhujiang) increased by 10% but Yangtze (Changjiang) runoff had little change. In the north flows in the Yellow (Huanghe), Liao and Songhua rivers decreased by 80%, 54% and 14%, respectively, all statistically significant based on Mann–Kendall trend analysis. Annual runoff in the Pearl and Yangtze rivers is correlated with basin-wide precipitation (R2of 0.72 and 0.81). Runoff from northern “deficit” rivers, however, was much lower than precipitation suggested, reflecting severe human impacts. Sub-basin analyses show that runoff in the “excess” southern Yangtze has increased more than precipitation would suggest, most likely indicating decreased water storage, decreased evapotranspiration, or both. In contrast, the marked decreases of runoff in northern sub-basins (including northern Yangtze and middle-lower Yellow) reflect drastically increased water consumption. The water crisis in northern China has been exacerbated by decreasing precipitation, doubling population and expanding water withdrawal, putting pressure on water management and economic development.