Low-Probability Flood Risk Modeling for New York City
Low-Probability Flood Risk Modeling for New York City
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DOI：
10.1111/risa.12008
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发表时间：
2013-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
de Moel, Hans
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.;Lin, Ning;de Moel, Hans
飓风桑迪（2012年）的破坏性影响再次表明，纽约市是地球仪周围最容易遭受沿海洪水的城市之一。纽约市的低洼地区可能会被东北风暴和北大西洋飓风淹没。估计纽约市潜在洪水损失的少数研究仅基于单一或少数可能的洪水事件的损失估计。本研究的目的是评估纽约市飓风洪水风险的全面分布。这是通过使用洪水损失模型计算潜在的洪水损失来完成的，该模型使用许多可能的风暴和浪涌高度作为输入。这些风暴代表了该市面临的低概率/高影响洪水灾害。在不同的洪水损失严重程度假设下，构建了超越概率-损失曲线。纽约市建筑物的洪水损失估计在5900万至1.29亿美元/年之间。1/100年一遇的风暴潮造成的损失在20亿至50亿美元之间，而1/500年一遇的风暴潮造成的损失在50亿至110亿美元之间。纽约市五个行政区的洪水风险分析发现，布鲁克林和皇后区最容易受到洪水的影响。本研究探讨了风险分析的各个步骤中的几个不确定性，这些不确定性导致了洪水损失估计的变化。这些不确定性包括：洪水深度的插值;不同洪水破坏曲线的使用;以及模拟飓风特征谱的影响。
The devastating impact by Hurricane Sandy (2012) again showed New York City (NYC) is one of the most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding around the globe. The low-lying areas in NYC can be flooded by nor'easter storms and North Atlantic hurricanes. The few studies that have estimated potential flood damage for NYC base their damage estimates on only a single, or a few, possible flood events. The objective of this study is to assess the full distribution of hurricane flood risk in NYC. This is done by calculating potential flood damage with a flood damage model that uses many possible storms and surge heights as input. These storms are representative for the low-probability/high-impact flood hazard faced by the city. Exceedance probability-loss curves are constructed under different assumptions about the severity of flood damage. The estimated flood damage to buildings for NYC is between US$59 and 129 millions/year. The damage caused by a 1/100-year storm surge is within a range of US$2 bn5 bn, while this is between US$5 bn and 11 bn for a 1/500-year storm surge. An analysis of flood risk in each of the five boroughs of NYC finds that Brooklyn and Queens are the most vulnerable to flooding. This study examines several uncertainties in the various steps of the risk analysis, which resulted in variations in flood damage estimations. These uncertainties include: the interpolation of flood depths; the use of different flood damage curves; and the influence of the spectra of characteristics of the simulated hurricanes.