Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey
Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey
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DOI：
10.1186/s12976-019-0102-8
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发表时间：
2019-03-20
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Nishiura, Hiroshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Munasinghe, Lankeshwara;Asai, Yusuke;Nishiura, Hiroshi
背景社会接触调查可以极大地帮助量化传染病传播的异质性模式。本研究的目的是在日本进行一项接触调查，提供按年龄和地点的接触估计，并使用流感的血清流行病学数据集验证社会接触矩阵。方法基于互联网的问卷调查，覆盖日本所有47个县，总共包括1476户家庭。在假设互惠的前提下，使用最大似然法对社会联系矩阵进行量化。通过对下一代矩阵施加几个参数假设，对2009年甲型H1N1流感的经验血清流行病学数据进行了分析，并估计了基本复制数R-0。结果平日报告的接触人数为10,682人，周末报告的接触人数为8867人。发现了强烈的年龄依赖性配合性。40%的工作日联系发生在学校或工作场所，但这一比例在周末下降到14%。考虑到已知的社会接触矩阵与年龄相关的异质性，获得了Akaike信息准则的最小值，估计R-0为1.45(95%可信区间：1.42，1.49)。结论调查数据集将有助于对日本各种直接传播传染病的异质性传播模型进行参数化。年龄相关的分类，特别是儿童之间的分类，加上工作日学校环境中的许多联系人，意味着关闭学校的潜在效果。
BackgroundSocial contact surveys can greatly help in quantifying the heterogeneous patterns of infectious disease transmission. The present study aimed to conduct a contact survey in Japan, offering estimates of contact by age and location and validating a social contact matrix using a seroepidemiological dataset of influenza.MethodsAn internet-based questionnaire survey was conducted, covering all 47 prefectures in Japan and including a total of 1476 households. The social contact matrix was quantified assuming reciprocity and using the maximum likelihood method. By imposing several parametric assumptions for the next-generation matrix, the empirical seroepidemiological data of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 was analysed and we estimated the basic reproduction number, R-0.ResultsIn total, the reported number of contacts on weekdays was 10,682 whereas that on weekend days was 8867. Strong age-dependent assortativity was identified. Forty percent of weekday contacts took place at schools or workplaces, but that declined to 14% on weekends. Accounting for the age-dependent heterogeneity with the known social contact matrix, the minimum value of the Akaike information criterion was obtained and R-0 was estimated at 1.45 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 1.49).ConclusionsSurvey datasets will be useful for parameterizing the heterogeneous transmission model of various directly transmitted infectious diseases in Japan. Age-dependent assortativity, especially among children, along with numerous contacts in school settings on weekdays implies the potential effectiveness of school closure.