Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health
Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.07.032
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发表时间：
2006-06-25
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Tol, Richard S. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bosello, Francesco;Roson, Roberto;Tol, Richard S. J.
我们研究气候变化引起的人类健康变化的经济影响，即。心血管和呼吸系统疾病、腹泻、疟疾、登革热和血吸虫病。发病率和死亡率的变化被解释为劳动生产率和医疗保健需求的变化，并被用来冲击2050年校准的GTAP-E可计算一般均衡模型。对健康有净负面(正面)影响的地区的GDP、福利和投资下降(上升)。价格、产量和贸易条件呈现出喜忧参半的格局。气候变化影响研究中常见的直接成本估算低估了真正的福利损失。(C)2005 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。
We study the economic impacts of climate-change-induced change in human health, viz. cardiovascular and respiratory disorders, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue fever and schistosomiasis. Changes in morbidity and mortality are interpreted as changes in labour productivity and demand for health care, and used to shock the GTAP-E computable general equilibrium model, calibrated for the year 2050. GDP, welfare and investment fall (rise) in regions with net negative (positive) health impacts. Prices, production, and terms of trade show a mixed pattern. Direct cost estimates, common in climate change impact studies, underestimate the true welfare losses. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.