Projected signals in climate extremes over China associated with a 2 °C global warming under two RCP scenarios
Projected signals in climate extremes over China associated with a 2 °C global warming under two RCP scenarios
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.5399
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发表时间：
2018-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yue Sui;Xianmei Lang;D. Jiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yue Sui;Xianmei Lang;D. Jiang
利用耦合模式比对项目第5阶段提供的29个气候模式的日输出，我们在代表性浓度路径4.5 （RCP4.5）和8.5 （RCP8.5）下，预测了相对于1986-2005年全球变暖高于工业化前水平2°C的12个极端温度指数和12个极端降水指数的信号。模式输出反映了以下预估变化：(1)与1986-2005年基线期相比，极端暖事件的发生频率、持续时间和强度均显著增加，局地信号来自中国大部分地区的自然内部变率。根据温暖极端指数，中国南方在夏季面临严重的热应激。(2)中国极端寒冷天气减少具有显著性和统计学意义。大部分模式显示华南和西北地区大部分极寒事件的最长持续时间和强度没有显著变化。(3)多模式中值表明，中国的极端湿事件发生频率更高、强度更强，极端降水量更大，年极端湿事件总量区域平均增加16.7 ~ 42.8 mm(8 ~ 42%)，但这些变化并不显著，不超过中国大部分地区的自然内部变率。限制全球变暖对中国有诸多好处，包括将1.5°C的全球变暖与2°C的全球变暖进行比较，减少极端温暖事件的发生频率和持续时间；将中等缓解情景RCP4.5与高排放情景RCP8.5进行比较，极端气候事件显著变化的发生时间较晚。
Using daily output from 29 climate models provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, we project signals in 12 extreme temperature indices and 12 extreme precipitation indices relative to 1986–2005 over China associated with a 2 °C global warming above pre‐industrial levels under representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). The model output reflects the following projected changes: (1) It is robust and statistically significant that warm extremes are more frequent, more persistent, and more intense than those during the baseline period of 1986–2005, and local signals emerge from natural internal variability over most of China. In particular, southern China faces severe heat stress in summer based on warm extreme indices. (2) It is robust and statistically significant that there are fewer cold extremes in China. Most models show no significant changes in the longest duration and intensity of most cold extremes in southern China and northwest China. (3) The multi‐model median shows that more frequent and more intense wet extremes that deliver greater amounts of extreme precipitation occur in China, with a regional mean increase of 16.7–42.8 mm (8–42%) in total amount of annual wet extremes, but these changes are not significant and do not exceed natural internal variability over most of the country. Spatially, the Tibetan Plateau and northeast China have robust and significant changes in part of precipitation extremes, and some changes begin to emerge from natural internal variability at local scale. There are benefits to limiting global warming for China, including less frequent and less persistent warm extremes when comparing 1.5 °C with 2 °C of global warming and a later occurrence of significant changes in climate extremes when compared an intermediate mitigation scenario RCP4.5 with a high emission scenario RCP8.5.