Forecasting infrastructure resilience to climate change
Forecasting infrastructure resilience to climate change
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DOI：
10.1680/tran.13.00089
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发表时间：
2014-10-01
影响因子：
0.8
通讯作者：
Wilks, Joanna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dijkstra, Tom;Dixon, Neil;Wilks, Joanna
英国交通基础设施网络的弹性可以表示为网络的物理条件和网络经历的运输需求之间的不平衡。预测长期（例如2050年代）的复原力变化需要一种结构化的多学科方法。工程和物理科学研究理事会资助的Futurenet项目开发了一个模型架构，正式这样一种方法，本文讨论了一个组成部分：评估的物理过程对资产状况的影响。这需要开发新的、综合的基于物理的模型，以响应天气预报事件的详细输入（例如，英国气候预测2009）。结果被绘制到基础设施网络上进行可视化。随后与用户需求相结合，将能够确定网络弹性在一系列空间尺度。该项目强调需要更好的数据集、更复杂的物理模型以及进一步分析复杂的反馈和物理过程之间的相互作用以及与用户行为的相互作用。
Resilience of the UK transport infrastructure network can be expressed as the imbalance between the physical condition of the network and the transport demands the network experiences. Forecasting changes of resilience in the long term (e.g. the 2050s) requires a structured, multi-disciplinary approach. The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council funded Futurenet project developed a model architecture to formalise such an approach and this paper addresses one component: the assessment of the influence of physical processes on asset condition. This requires the development of new, integrated physical-based models that respond to detailed inputs of forecast weather events (e.g. UK Climate Projections 2009). The results are plotted onto the infrastructure network for visualisation. Subsequent combination with user demand will then enable determination of network resilience at a range of spatial scales. The project has highlighted the need for better datasets, more sophisticated physical-based models and further analyses of complex feedbacks and interactions between physical processes and also with user behaviour.