No more gas from Egypt? Modeling offshore discoveries and import uncertainty of natural gas in Israel
No more gas from Egypt? Modeling offshore discoveries and import uncertainty of natural gas in Israel
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.09.019
复制
发表时间：
2014-12
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
K. Siddig;H. Grethe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Siddig;H. Grethe
以色列大约40%的国内需求依赖于从埃及进口天然气，其余的通过国内生产来满足。埃及的天然气供应自启动以来一直不稳定：2011年埃及革命后，供应中断的情况有所增加，公众的不满情绪进一步点燃了这种情况。尽管有这些进展，但以色列政策制定者一直将埃及的天然气协议视为维护与埃及和平的积极因素，除了依赖该协议之外，没有其他更好的选择。然而，在最近发现了三个主要的海上气田后，这种情况发生了变化。这些气田预计将无限期地满足国内需求，并为出口提供天然气。我们使用一个扩展的全球CGE建模框架，该框架纳入了多个家庭和要素所有权，以调查从埃及减少天然气进口的影响，以及作为替代选择的国内天然气生产的演变。如果从埃及进口的天然气减少，以色列经济将略有回落，主要是因为能源密集型行业的产量下降。贫困家庭将受到最大的负面影响，因为收入的相对降幅最大，消费者价格指数的涨幅最大。在增加国内天然气产量的情况下，以色列国内生产总值和国内吸收将分别增长约0.2%和0.4%。贫困家庭将比富裕家庭受到更积极的影响，因为他们的要素收入构成，以及他们在能源密集型商品上的较高支出份额。
Israel depends on natural gas imports from Egypt for about 40% of its domestic needs, with the remaining met from domestic production. Gas supplies from Egypt have been erratic since their initiation: disruptions have increased after the 2011 revolution in Egypt and have been further ignited by public discontent. Despite these developments, Israeli policy makers have viewed the Egyptian gas deal as a positive factor in preserving peace with Egypt and have had no better alternatives than relying upon it. This has changed, however, after recent discoveries of three major offshore fields that are expected to satisfy domestic demand for an indefinite period and to provide gas for exports. We use an extended global CGE modeling framework that incorporates multiple households and factor ownership to investigate the effects of reduced gas imports from Egypt and the evolvement of domestic gas production as an alternative. In case of reduced gas imports from Egypt, the Israeli economy would slightly retract mainly due to lower production in energy intensive sectors. Poor households would be the most negatively affected, due to the strongest relative decline in income and the strongest increase of their consumer price index. In the case of increasing domestic gas production, Israeli GDP and domestic absorption would rise by about 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. Poor households would be more positively affected than rich ones due to their composition of factor income and their higher expenditure shares for energy intensive commodities.