Unrealistic fatalism in US youth ages 14 to 22: Prevalence and characteristics
Unrealistic fatalism in US youth ages 14 to 22: Prevalence and characteristics
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.jadohealth.2007.07.010
复制
发表时间：
2008-02-01
影响因子：
7.6
通讯作者：
Romer, Dan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jamieson, Patrick E.;Romer, Dan
目的：估计美国年轻人对自己的未来表现出不切实际的宿命论（不期望活过30岁）的比例，并测试对这种预期的风险因素的预测。方法：采用logistic回归分析2002 ~ 2005年全国代表性的4波14 ~ 22岁青年电话调查（N = 4201），探讨不现实宿命论的相关因素和预测因素。结果：大约每15个受访青年中有1个（6.7%，95%置信区间[CI] = 5.9%, 7.5%）回答说，他们同意自己活不过30岁。与其他年轻人相比，宿命论者明显更有可能是年龄较大的男性，认为自己是西班牙裔，并且用西班牙语完成了采访。正如预测的那样，最近的绝望经历是宿命论的有力预示。此外，经历过绝望的非白人青年报告说，随着年龄的增长，宿命论的比例越来越高。宿命论青年有更多的自杀计划，对自杀的态度更容易接受，对宗教的依赖更少，而且比其他青年更冲动。大约43%的宿命论者预测可能死于自杀，而其余的人则预测死于外部来源。宿命论者也更有可能不留在学校。结论：因为表现出宿命论的青少年有辍学和自杀计划的风险，他们应该在早期被识别出来，转介到有效治疗有绝望和自杀倾向的青少年的项目中。(C) 2008年青少年医学学会。版权所有。
Purpose: To estimate the proportion of U.S. youth that exhibits unrealistic fatalism about its future (not expecting to live past age 30), and to test predictions about risk factors for this expectation.Methods: Four waves of a nationally representative telephone survey from 2002 to 2005 with youth ages 14 to 22 (N = 4201) were analyzed using logistic regression to identify correlates and predictors of unrealistic fatalism.Results: Approximately I out of every 15 youth interviewed (6.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.9%, 7.5%) responded that they agreed they would not live much past the age of 30. Compared to other youth, fatalists were significantly more likely to be older, male, to identify as Hispanic, and have completed the interview in Spanish. As predicted, recent experience of hopelessness was a strong predictor of fatalism. In addition, nonwhite youth who had experienced hopelessness reported increasing rates of fatalism as they aged. Fatalistic youth engaged in greater suicidal planning, had more accepting attitudes toward suicide, were less attached to religion, and were more impulsive than other youth. Approximately 43% of fatalists forecast a likely death by suicide, whereas the rest anticipated death by an outside source. Fatalists were also more likely not to stay in school.Conclusions: Because youth exhibiting fatalism are at risk for not staying in school and suicidal planning, they should be identified at an early age for referral to programs that are effective in treating youth with hopelessness and suicidal tendencies. (C) 2008 Society for Adolescent Medicine. All rights reserved.