The variability of European floods since AD 1500
The variability of European floods since AD 1500
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-010-9816-7
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发表时间：
2010-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Himmelsbach, Iso
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Glaser, Ruediger;Riemann, Dirk;Himmelsbach, Iso
本文提出了一个定性和定量分析的洪水变化和强迫的主要欧洲河流自公元1500年。我们编译和调查洪水重建的基础上，12个中欧河流和8个地中海河流的文献证据。洪水变率和潜在的气候原因重建使用诠释学方法，包括关键源分析和应用半定量分类方案。本文介绍了驱动气候的原因，季节性和变异性的不同河流流域内观测到的洪水事件覆盖欧洲大陆。历史洪水数据和历史洪水重建领域的最新研究是突出。此外，还讨论了不同洪水系列的特征。历史洪水季节性与现代分布的比较和空间一致性方面。比较分析指出，洪水事件的数量主要是由区域气候强迫引发的，对邻近集水区的影响最大。唯一的例外是极端的、跨区域的气候事件和条件，例如与1784年类似的异常寒冷冬季，它影响了欧洲的大部分地区，并在几个集水区引发了洪水事件，原因是每年解冻开始时的冰层破裂。洪水发生率增加的四个时期，主要影响中欧河流，已经确定：1540-1600年，1640-1700年，1730-1790年，1790-1840年。对过去五个世纪欧洲范围内洪水数据的重建、汇编和分析揭示了潜在气候原因的复杂性以及洪水事件在时间和空间维度上的高度可变性。
The paper presents a qualitative and quantitative analysis of flood variability and forcing of major European rivers since AD 1500. We compile and investigate flood reconstructions which are based on documentary evidence for twelve Central European rivers and for eight Mediterranean rivers. Flood variability and underlying climatological causes are reconstructed by using hermeneutic approaches including critical source analysis and by applying a semi-quantitative classification scheme. The paper describes the driving climatic causes, seasonality and variability of observed flood events within the different river catchments covering the European mainland. Historical flood data are presented and recent research in the field of historical flood reconstructions is highlighted. Additionally, the character of the different flood series is discussed. A comparison of the historical flood seasonality in relation to modern distribution is given and aspects of the spatial coherence are presented. The comparative analysis points to the fact that the number of flood events is predominately triggered by regional climatic forcing, with at most only minor influence on neighbouring catchments. The only exceptions are extreme, supra-regional climatic events and conditions such as anomalous cold winters, similar to that of 1784, which affected large parts of Europe and triggered flood events in several catchments as a result of ice-break at the beginning of the annual thaw. Four periods of increased occurrence of flooding, mostly affecting Central European Rivers, have been identified; 1540-1600, 1640-1700, 1730-1790, 1790-1840. The reconstruction, compilation and analysis of European-wide flood data over the last five centuries reveal the complexity of the underlying climatological causes and the high variability of flood events in temporal and spatial dimension.