The COVID-19 Infection in Italy: A Statistical Study of an Abnormally Severe Disease
The COVID-19 Infection in Italy: A Statistical Study of an Abnormally Severe Disease
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DOI：
10.3390/jcm9051564
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Troise, Claudia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
De Natale, Giuseppe;Ricciardi, Valerio;Troise, Claudia
我们对冠状病毒病19 （COVID-19）大流行进行了统计调查，该疾病于2020年3月在意大利变得特别具有侵略性。我们表明，与其他国家相比，意大利观察到的高表观致死率或病死率（CFR）可能因严重低估感染病例数而存在偏差。为了对COVID-19的致死率做出更现实的估计，我们使用了基于最小观察到的CFR对大流行感染致死率（IFR）的实际（2020年3月）估计，并分析了从钻石公主号游轮上获得的数据，这很好地代表了来自一个孤立系统的“实验室”案例研究，其中所有人都接受了测试。从这样的分析中，我们得出了对感染的真实程度的更现实的估计，以及感染传播速度的更准确的指标。然后，我们分离出导致意大利疾病异常严重程度的主要因素。最后，我们使用死亡人数——唯一估计足够可靠的数据——来预测感染的总人数和意大利感染可能结束的时间间隔。
We statistically investigate the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic, which became particularly invasive in Italy in March 2020. We show that the high apparent lethality or case fatality ratio (CFR) observed in Italy, as compared with other countries, is likely biased by a strong underestimation of the number of infection cases. To give a more realistic estimate of the lethality of COVID-19, we use the actual (March 2020) estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) of the pandemic based on the minimum observed CFR and analyze data obtained from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, a good representation of a "laboratory" case-study from an isolated system in which all the people have been tested. From such analyses, we derive more realistic estimates of the real extent of the infection as well as more accurate indicators of how fast the infection propagates. We then isolate the dominant factors causing the abnormal severity of the disease in Italy. Finally, we use the death count-the only data estimated to be reliable enough-to predict the total number of people infected and the interval of time when the infection in Italy could end.