Assessing sensitivity to climate change and drought variability of a sand dune endemic lizard
Assessing sensitivity to climate change and drought variability of a sand dune endemic lizard
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DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2009.12.013
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发表时间：
2010-03-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Allen, Michael F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Barrows, Cameron W.;Rotenberry, John T.;Allen, Michael F.
旨在评估物种对气候变化敏感性的生物气候模型纳入了气候变量的平均变化；然而，极端气候事件发生频率的增加，包括干旱持续时间的延长和严重程度的增加，可能对物种的持续存在造成更严重的威胁。在这里，我们使用生态位模型评估气候变化敏感性，与生物气候模型不同，该模型包含气候变量以及限制物种分布的其他栖息地特征。我们分析了干旱频率潜在增加对一种濒临灭绝的沙丘蜥蜴的影响，这种蜥蜴的栖息地仅限于狭窄的基质，因此无法向上坡或向极地移动以跟踪气候变化。我们的生态位建模结果表明，在模拟气候变化的较低水平下，合适的生态位空间区域仅出现轻微损失；在最严重的气候变化下，我们测试了合适的生态位空间面积减少了 50% 以上。然而，推断降雨量减少对干旱周期和强度的潜在影响表明，对蜥蜴种群的影响更为直接和严重。干旱持续时间预测加上景观破碎化导致合适的生态位空间迅速丧失，从蜥蜴活动范围的大部分地区开始，一直延伸到气候更温和的地区。尽管与平均条件的变化相比，气候变化对干旱周期性的影响存在更大的不确定性，但我们的研究结果表明，干旱更有可能对物种对此类变化的适应能力产生负面影响。 (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
Bioclimatic models aimed assessing a species' sensitivity to climate change incorporate mean shifts in climate variables; however the more acute threat to the persistence of species may result from increased frequency of extreme climatic events, including increased duration and severity of droughts. Here we assess climate-change sensitivity using niche modeling that unlike bioclimatic modeling incorporates both climate variables as well as other habitat features that constrain a species' distribution. We analyzed the effects of potential increases in drought frequency for an endangered, sand dune-restricted lizard, a species restricted to a narrowly occurring substrate and so unable to move up-slope or pole-ward to track climate shifts. Our niche modeling results indicated only minor losses to the area of suitable niche space at lower levels of modeled climate change; at the most severe climate shifts we tested the area of suitable niche space reduced by slightly more than 50%. However, extrapolating the potential impacts of reduced rainfall on drought periodicity and intensity showed a more immediate and acute impact on the lizard's populations. Drought duration projections coupled with landscape fragmentation resulted in rapid losses of suitable niche space, beginning in the more and portion of the lizard's range and extending into more moderate climate areas. Although there is greater uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change on drought periodicity than with shifts in mean conditions, our results show a greater potential for droughts to negatively impact species' resilience to such changes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.