Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences A nonlinear model coupling rockfall and rainfall intensity based on a four year measurement in a high Alpine rock wall ( Reintal , German Alps )
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences A nonlinear model coupling rockfall and rainfall intensity based on a four year measurement in a high Alpine rock wall ( Reintal , German Alps )
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自然灾害和地球系统科学耦合落石和降雨强度的非线性模型基于高山岩壁（德国阿尔卑斯山雷因塔尔）四年的测量
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Moser
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Krautblatter;M. Moser
1999-2003年，在德国阿尔卑斯山的Reintal，一个400-600 m高的岩面下，在8个共940 m 2大小的落石收集器中，共测量了超过140 000 kg的小型落石沉积物。进行测量的时间分辨率高达一天的属性落石强度所观察到的触发事件。降雨量由雨量计和高分辨率降水雷达评估。强烈的暴雨引发了先前未报道的落石强度高达300 000 g/（m 2 h），我们称之为“二次落石事件”。与没有霜冻的干燥时期（10−2g/（m2 h））相比，在湿冻融循环期间落石沉积增加了2-218倍，在二次落石事件期间增加了5.6万至4000万倍。得到了落石强度[g/（m2 h）]与降雨强度[mm/h]之间的三个非线性Logistic增长模型。该模型考虑了不同的岩壁中间存储量，触发阈值和存储耗尽。它们适用于所有落石收集器位置，相关性从R2 =0.89到0.99。因此，超过90%的落石的时间是由触发因素降雨强度解释。落石响应模型与雷达支持的风暴单元预测相结合，可用于预测危险的落石事件，并有助于减少个人和移动的结构（如电缆汽车）的风险。根据气象记录，这些强烈落石事件的频率可能会增加，以应对全球变暖。联系人：M。Krautblatter（michael. giub.uni-bonn.de）
A total of more than 140 000 kg of smallmagnitude rockfall deposits was measured in eight rockfall collectors of altogether 940 m 2 in size between 1999–2003 below a 400–600 m high rock face in the Reintal, German Alps. Measurements were conducted with a temporal resolution up to single days to attribute rockfall intensity to observed triggering events. Precipitation was assessed by a rain gauge and high-resolution precipitation radar. Intense rainstorms triggered previously unreported rockfall intensities of up to 300 000 g/(m 2h) that we term “secondary rockfall event.” In comparison to dry periods without frost (10−2g/(m2h)), rockfall deposition increased by 2–218 times during wet freeze-thaw cycles and by 56-thousand to 40million times during secondary rockfall events. We obtained three nonlinear logistic growth models that relate rockfall intensity [g/(m2h)] to rainfall intensity [mm/h]. The models account for different rock wall intermediate storage volumes, triggering thresholds and storage depletion. They apply to all rockfall collector positions with correlations fromR2=0.89 to 0.99. Thus, the timing of more than 90% of the encountered rockfall is explained by the triggering factor rainfall intensity. A combination of rockfall response models with radar-supported storm cell forecast could be used to anticipate hazardous rockfall events, and help to reduce the exposure of individuals and mobile structures (e.g. cable cars) to the hazard. According to meteorological recordings, the frequency of these intense rockfall events is likely to increase in response to global warming. Correspondence to: M. Krautblatter (michael.krautblatter@giub.uni-bonn.de)