Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set
Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set
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订单流和汇率货币模型:来自新数据集的证据
DOI:
10.1111/j.1538-4616.2011.00460.x
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发表时间:
2011
期刊:
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
CHINN M
中科院分区:
文献类型:
--
作者:
CHINN M
We propose an exchange rate model that is a hybrid of the conventional specification with monetary fundamentals and the Evans–Lyons microstructure approach. We estimate a model augmented with order flow variables, using a unique data set: almost 100 monthly observations on interdealer order flow on dollar/euro and dollar/yen. The augmented macroeconomic, or “hybrid,” model exhibits greater in‐sample stability and out of sample forecasting improvement vis‐à‐vis the basic macroeconomic and random walk specifications.
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