On the benefits of flattening the curve: A perspective
On the benefits of flattening the curve: A perspective
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DOI：
10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108389
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Hill, Andrew N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feng, Zhilan;Glasser, John W.;Hill, Andrew N.
最近关于COVID-19的新闻报道中出现的说明缓解大流行性流感的非药物措施影响的图表有许多不同之处，这表明有必要更好地解释社会距离减少传染病传播的机制。一些报告低估了减少人际接触频率或距离的一个好处，即减少感染总数。为了提高人们的理解，我们描述了社交距离如何(a)降低感染高峰发生率，(b)延迟感染高峰的发生，以及(c)减少流行病期间的感染总数。鉴于目前正在努力确定对SARS-COV-2有效的现有药物，并开发新的抗病毒药物、疫苗和抗体疗法，其中任何一种都可能在社区层面产生影响，我们还描述了药物干预如何影响传播。
The many variations on a graphic illustrating the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures to mitigate pandemic influenza that have appeared in recent news reports about COVID-19 suggest a need to better explain the mechanism by which social distancing reduces the spread of infectious diseases. And some reports understate one benefit of reducing the frequency or proximity of interpersonal encounters, a reduction in the total number of infections. In hopes that understanding will increase compliance, we describe how social distancing (a) reduces the peak incidence of infections, (b) delays the occurrence of this peak, and (c) reduces the total number of infections during epidemics. In view of the extraordinary efforts underway to identify existing medications that are active against SARS-COV-2 and to develop new antiviral drugs, vaccines and antibody therapies, any of which may have community-level effects, we also describe how pharmaceutical interventions affect transmission.