Heterosexual HIV transmission and STD prevalence: predictions of a theoretical model
Heterosexual HIV transmission and STD prevalence: predictions of a theoretical model
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DOI：
10.1136/sti.74.5.339
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发表时间：
1998-10-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Riddlesdell, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Renton, AM;Whitaker, L;Riddlesdell, M
背景：先前的研究表明，并发的性传播感染可能会增强艾滋病毒的传播。本文使用HIV和其他STD病原体传播的数学模型来探索这一点的一些理论后果。目的：建立一个确定性数学模型来描述HIV和细菌性传播的异性传播动力学。研究设计：我们在确定性数学模型中使用对伦敦年轻异性恋人群性行为的调查衍生估计来估计不同水平的STD在这样一个人群中对HIV流行的影响。结果：我们表明该模型的预测是可信的，并表明，即使在低STD流行率和低HIV传播增强的条件下，相当大比例的HIV传播事件可能归因于同时发生的性传播疾病。结论：在工业化国家中，由于控制性病的相对成功，异性传播艾滋病毒感染的流行可能在规模上受到限制。尽管如此，确实发生的很大一部分异性传播事件可能归因于并发的性传播疾病。在发展中国家，廉价和简单的性病护理很可能是预防艾滋病毒传播的一种成本效益很高的战略。
Background: Previous studies suggest that concurrent sexually transmitted infection may enhance HIV transmission. This paper explores some theoretical consequences of this using a mathematical model of transmission of HIV and other STD pathogens.Objectives: To develop a deterministic mathematical model to describe the heterosexual transmission dynamics of both HIV and a bacterial STD.Study design: We used survey derived estimates of sexual behaviour in a young heterosexual London population in our deterministic mathematical model to estimate the effects on an HIV epidemic of different levels of STD prevalence in such a population.Results: We show that the predictions of the model are plausible and suggest that, even under conditions both of low STD prevalence and of low HIV transmission enhancement, a substantial proportion of HIV transmission events may be attributable to concurrent STD.Conclusions: It is likely that epidemics of heterosexually transmitted HIV infection in industrialised countries have been limited in size by the relative success of efforts to control STD. None the less, a significant proportion of heterosexual transmission events which do occur may be attributable to concurrent STD. In developing countries, cheap and simple STD care is likely to be a highly cost effective strategy to prevent HIV transmission.