Risk-based optimal inspection strategies for structural systems using dynamic Bayesian networks
Risk-based optimal inspection strategies for structural systems using dynamic Bayesian networks
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DOI：
10.1016/j.strusafe.2018.08.002
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
J. Luque;D. Štraub
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Luque;D. Štraub
在大多数结构系统中，定期检查所有系统组件既不可能也不最佳。最佳的检查修复策略以有限的成本和可接受的可靠性有效地控制结构系统的恶化。目前，还没有针对整个结构系统的基于风险的整体优化程序；现有的基于风险的检查方法仅限于逐个组件地优化检查。积分方法的挑战在于结构系统的检查修复过程中存在大量优化参数，并且需要立即对整个系统进行概率推理以解决所有组件之间的相互依赖性。在本文中，我们概述了结构系统中基于整体风险的检查优化的方法，该方法利用启发式方法来制定优化问题。它以最近开发的动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）框架为基础，用于根据检查结果快速计算系统可靠性。通过将 DBN 嵌套在蒙特卡罗模拟中来计算与系统范围检查策略相关的预期成本，可以解决优化问题。所提出的方法应用于遭受疲劳恶化的结构系统，并证明它可以为结构系统提供基于风险的整体检查计划。
In most structural systems, it is neither possible nor optimal to inspect all system components regularly. An optimal inspection-repair strategy controls deterioration in structural systems efficiently with limited cost and acceptable reliability. At present, an integral risk-based optimization procedure for entire structural systems is not available; existing risk-based inspection methods are limited to optimizing inspections component by component. The challenges to an integral approach lie in the large number of optimization parameters in the inspection-repair process of a structural system, and the need to perform probabilistic inference for the entire system at once to address interdependencies among all components. In this paper, we outline a methodology for an integral risk-based optimization of inspections in structural systems, which utilizes a heuristic approach to formulating the optimization problem. It takes basis in a recently developed dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) framework for rapid computation of the system reliability conditional on inspection results. The optimization problem is solved by nesting the DBN inside a Monte-Carlo simulation for computing the expected cost associated with a system-wide inspection strategy. The proposed methodology is applied to a structural system subject to fatigue deterioration and it is demonstrated that it enables an integral risk-based inspection planning for structural systems.