Extreme climate events and economic impacts in China: A CGE analysis with a new damage function in IAM
Extreme climate events and economic impacts in China: A CGE analysis with a new damage function in IAM
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DOI：
10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120765
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发表时间：
2021-08
影响因子：
12
通讯作者：
Hailing Zhang;Changxin Liu;Can Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hailing Zhang;Changxin Liu;Can Wang
综合评估模型（IAM）已被广泛用于评估气候政策的影响。它们被用来将经济活动与简单的气候系统相结合。将地球系统模型（ESM）与气候变化影响科学研究的社会经济框架相结合是一项具有挑战性的任务。环境支持措施中复杂的气候信息与经济活动的耦合机制，特别是极端气候事件对工业部门经济活动的影响，需要进一步探讨。为此，本文构建了一个新的IAM模型EMRICES-2021，并通过增加降水和极端气候事件的经济影响机制，改进了损害函数的关键耦合技术。考虑到气候变化对工业部门影响的动态持续性特征，将新的损害函数嵌入到可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型的Cobb-Douglas生产函数中，模拟了未来气候变化对工业经济系统的影响。结果表明，新的损失函数能更好地模拟极端气候事件的突发性经济影响和气候损失的波动性。极端天气造成的累积间接损失远远超过RCP情景中的直接损失。真实的房地产业、金融业、批发零售业气候经济损失增长最快。
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been widely used to assess the effect of climatic policy. They are used to combine economic activity with simple climatic systems. Coupling earth system models (ESMs) to a socioeconomic framework for scientific research on climate change impacts is a challenging task. The coupling mechanism for complicated climate information in ESMs and economic activities, particularly the effects of extreme climate events on economic activities of industrial sectors, needs to be further explored. Therefore, we constructed a new IAM named EMRICES-2021 and improved the key coupling technology of damage function by adding an economic impact mechanism of precipitation, and extreme climate events. Considering the dynamic persistence features of climatic impacts on industrial sectors, we embedded the new damage function into the Cobb-Douglas production function of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and simulated future climatic losses on industrial economic system. Results show that the new damage function could better simulate the sudden economic impacts of extreme climate events and volatilities of climatic losses than Nordhaus mode. The cumulative indirect losses caused by extreme weather far exceeded direct losses in RCP scenarios. Climatic economic losses on real estate, finance, wholesale and retail trade increased fastest.