Dynamic spatial simulation modeling of the population - environment matrix in the Ecuadorian Amazon
Dynamic spatial simulation modeling of the population - environment matrix in the Ecuadorian Amazon
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DOI：
10.1068/b31186
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发表时间：
2005-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Walsh, SJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Messina, JP;Walsh, SJ
本研究使用多专题和空间明确的数据相结合的纵向社会经济和人口调查在1990年和1999年，地理信息系统覆盖的资源禀赋和地理可达性，和分类Landsat专题制图（TM）卫星时间序列。目标是将联合收割机这样的数据与专家知识，一套分析结果，和动态建模方法来描述，解释，并探讨土地利用和覆盖变化（LUCC）的原因和后果在厄瓜多尔亚马逊河流域的北方Oriente地区。首先，元胞自动机（CA）模型代表土地利用/覆被变化的开发使用遥感Landsat TM图像的时间序列为90 000公顷的密集研究区域内的区域和校准使用替代图像的时间序列。分类的图像被链接到空间参考的生物物理和社会经济的覆盖面作为输入数据，然后结合“规则”来自经验分析。第二，在动态模拟中使用了保护性耕作模型，以探讨土地利用的变化作为下列因素的原因和后果：（a）道路发展，（B）农业扩展和土地放弃，（c）世界市场和作物价格的重大变化，（d）区域内中心城市的城市扩张。最后，复杂性理论在与人口-环境相互作用相关的时空动态中进行了探索，特别是森林砍伐，城市化，以及在石油公司建造的道路和自20世纪60年代末开始的自发殖民者的相应移民进入的土地上种植农作物的生存和商业种植。这项研究有助于研究人口与环境的相互作用在一个前沿的环境，并探讨如何动态和复杂的系统可以使用基于CA的空间模拟建模。
This research uses multithematic and spatially explicit data combined from a longitudinal socioeconomic and demographic survey conducted in 1990 and 1999, GIS coverages of resource endowments and geographic accessibility, and a classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite time series. The goal was to combine such data with expert knowledge, a set of analytic results, and dynamic modeling approaches to describe, explain, and explore the causes and consequences of land use and cover change (LUCC) in the northern Oriente region of the Ecuadorian Amazon. First, a cellular automaton (CA) model representing LUCC was developed using a time series of remotely sensed Landsat TM images for a 90 000-ha intensive study area within the region and calibrated using alternative images from the time series. The classified images were linked to spatially referenced biophysical and socioeconomic coverages used as input data, and then combined with 'rules' derived from empirical analyses. Second, the CA model was used in dynamic simulations to explore LUCC as both causes and consequences of (a) road development, (b) agricultural extensification and land abandonment, (c) major shifts in world markets and crop prices, and (d) urban expansion of the central city within the region. Finally, complexity theory was explored within the spatial and temporal dynamics associated with population-environment interactions, particularly, deforestation, urbanization, and subsistence and commercial cultivation of agricultural crops on lands made accessible by petroleum-company-built roads and the corresponding in-migration of spontaneous colonists beginning in the late 1960s. This research contributes to the study of population-environment interactions in a frontier environment, and examines how dynamic and complex systems can be modeled using CA-based spatial simulations.