Investigation of the uncertainty of initial and boundary conditions in the hindcasts of flow fields over urban areas using a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model
Investigation of the uncertainty of initial and boundary conditions in the hindcasts of flow fields over urban areas using a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model
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利用中尺度数值天气预报模型研究城市地区流场后报中初始条件和边界条件的不确定性
DOI：
10.1002/2475-8876.12282
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
0.9
通讯作者：
Kawamoto Yoichi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
工藤大介;山田正太郎;京谷孝史;Kawamoto Yoichi
许多研究已经使用中尺度数值天气预报模式来分析世界各地城市地区的热环境和风环境。然而，天气预报对初始条件高度敏感。这就是所谓的“蝴蝶效应”。在这项研究中，通过改变(I)用于初始和边界条件的客观分析资料和(Ii)自旋计算周期的长度，研究了初始和边界条件对福冈地区风环境(特别是海风)再现精度的影响。将模拟结果与地面观测和多普勒激光雷达观测结果进行了比较。精确度被认为随着旋转计算周期的增加而降低；然而，在这项研究中情况并非如此。在客观分析数据的差异方面，与地面观测的比较没有观察到明显的趋势，但与多普勒激光雷达相比，观察到了轻微的差异。还采用了滞后平均预报方法(通过移动计算开始时间来减少初始条件的不确定性)；集合平均结果与观测值具有很好的一致性。
Numerous studies have been conducted using mesoscale numerical weather prediction models to analyze the thermal and wind environments of urban areas around the world. However, weather predictions are highly sensitive to initial conditions. This is the so‐called “butterfly effect.” In this study, the effects of initial and boundary conditions upon the reproduction accuracy for wind environments (particularly for the sea breeze) over the Fukuoka metropolitan area were investigated by varying (i) the objective analysis data used for the initial and boundary conditions and (ii) the length of the spin‐up calculation period. The results of the simulation were compared with surface observations and Doppler LIDAR observations of the airflow field. The accuracy is thought to decrease under an increase in the length of the spin‐up calculation period; however, this was not the case in this study. In terms of the differences in the objective analysis data, no clear trend was observed from the comparisons with surface observations; however, slight differences were observed when comparing with the Doppler LIDAR. The lagged average forecasting method (which reduces the uncertainty of the initial conditions by shifting the calculation start time) was also adopted; the ensemble‐averaged results showed a good correspondence with the observations.
改进地表参数化并纳入人为放热 使用 MM5 第 1 部分开发城市气候分析模型
DOI：
10.3130/aije.73.1125
发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Yoichi Kawamoto;R. Ooka
通讯作者：
R. Ooka
使用 MM5 结合城市冠层模型开发城市气候分析模型
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kumiko Narikiyo;Shusaku Sugimoto;Toshio Suga;and Kimio Hanawa;Shusaku Sugimoto and Kimio Hanawa;日沖敦子;日沖敦子;日沖 敦子;日沖敦子;日沖敦子;日沖敦子;日沖敦子;日沖敦子;日沖敦子;日沖 敦子;日沖敦子;服部幸造・美濃部重克・弓削繁編;西尾市岩瀬文庫編;石川 透 監修;岩瀬文庫「絵ものがたりファンタジア」プロジェクトチーム;田中 真哉;田中 真哉;伊東 正登;川本陽一;川本陽一;小川 華奈;佐藤 治彦;川本陽一
通讯作者：
川本陽一