Equilibrium Social Distancing
Equilibrium Social Distancing
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平衡社交距离
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Flavio Toxvaerd
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Flavio Toxvaerd
本文提出了一种流行病的经济模型，其中易感个体可能会进行昂贵的社会距离，以避免被感染。受感染的个体最终会恢复并获得免疫力，从而不再成为其他人的感染源。在非合作和前瞻性决策下，均衡社会距离在流行病高峰期左右内生产生，此时疾病流行率达到由偏好决定的临界阈值。因此，自发的、不协调的社会距离通过降低高峰流行率而使流行病曲线变平。在平衡状态下，一旦群体免疫开始，社会距离就会停止，但会延长流行病的持续时间，超过非行为流行病学模型的基准。相对于模型参数的比较静态表明，曲线变得更平坦（i）疾病的传染性越强，以及（ii）疾病对个体的健康后果越严重。
This paper presents an economic model of an epidemic in which susceptible individuals may engage in costly social distancing in order to avoid becoming infected. Infected individuals eventually recover and acquire immunity, thereby ceasing to be a source of infection to others. Under non-cooperative and forward-looking decision making, equilibrium social distancing arises endogenously around the peak of the epidemic, when disease prevalence reaches a critical threshold determined by preferences. Spontaneous, uncoordinated social distancing thus acts to flatten the curve of the epidemic by reducing peak prevalence. In equilibrium, social distancing stops once herd immunity sets in, but acts to extend the duration of the epidemic beyond the benchmark of a non-behavioral epidemiological model. Comparative statics with respect to the model parameters indicate that the curve becomes flatter (i) the more infectious the disease is and (ii) the more severe the health consequences of the disease are for the individuals.