Impact of population aging on trends in diabetes prevalence: A meta-regression analysis of 160,000 Japanese adults.
Impact of population aging on trends in diabetes prevalence: A meta-regression analysis of 160,000 Japanese adults.
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DOI：
10.1111/jdi.12333
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发表时间：
2015-09
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Inoue M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Charvat H;Goto A;Goto M;Inoue M;Heianza Y;Arase Y;Sone H;Nakagami T;Song X;Qiao Q;Tuomilehto J;Tsugane S;Noda M;Inoue M
提供日本成年人群中年龄和性别特异性趋势、年龄标准化趋势以及到2030年的糖尿病患病率预测。在本荟萃回归分析中，我们纳入了1988年至2011年在日本进行的6项研究和9项国家健康调查的161，087名成年人。我们使用记录的糖尿病史评估糖尿病的患病率，或者对于没有已知糖尿病的个体人群，糖化血红蛋白水平≥6.5%（48 mmol/mol）或1999年世界卫生组织标准（即，空腹血糖水平≥126 mg/dL和/或75 g口服葡萄糖耐量试验中2小时血糖水平≥200 mg/dL）。就男女而言，除了70岁或以上的男子外，所有年龄组的流行率多年来似乎保持不变，观察到男子的流行率随着时间的推移而显著增加。基于相应年份日本人口的标准化糖尿病患病率估计值显示出明显的上升趋势：女性糖尿病患病率为6.1%（95%置信区间[CI] 5.5-6.7），9.9%男性（95% CI 9.2-10.6），7.9% 2010年占总人口的比例（95%CI 7.5-8.4），预计到2030年将上升至6.7%（95% CI 5.2-9.2）、13.1%（95% CI 10.9-16.7）和9.8%（95% CI 8.5-12.0）。相反，使用固定人群的年龄标准化糖尿病患病率似乎保持不变。这一大规模的荟萃回归分析表明，预计在未来几十年内，日本的糖尿病患病率将大幅增加，这主要是由于成年人口的老龄化。
To provide age- and sex-specific trends, age-standardized trends, and projections of diabetes prevalence through the year 2030 in the Japanese adult population. In the present meta-regression analysis, we included 161,087 adults from six studies and nine national health surveys carried out between 1988 and 2011 in Japan. We assessed the prevalence of diabetes using a recorded history of diabetes or, for the population of individuals without known diabetes, either a glycated hemoglobin level of ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol) or the 1999 World Health Organization criteria (i.e., a fasting plasma glucose level of ≥126 mg/dL and/or 2-h glucose level of ≥200 mg/dL in the 75-g oral glucose tolerance test). For both sexes, prevalence appeared to remain unchanged over the years in all age categories except for men aged 70 years or older, in whom a significant increase in prevalence with time was observed. Age-standardized diabetes prevalence estimates based on the Japanese population of the corresponding year showed marked increasing trends: diabetes prevalence was 6.1% among women (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.5–6.7), 9.9% (95% CI 9.2–10.6) among men, and 7.9% (95% CI 7.5–8.4) among the total population in 2010, and was expected to rise by 2030 to 6.7% (95% CI 5.2–9.2), 13.1% (95% CI 10.9–16.7) and 9.8% (95% CI 8.5–12.0), respectively. In contrast, the age-standardized diabetes prevalence using a fixed population appeared to remain unchanged. This large-scale meta-regression analysis shows that a substantial increase in diabetes prevalence is expected in Japan during the next few decades, mainly as a result of the aging of the adult population.