Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh.
Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep16105
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发表时间：
2015-11-05
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Tong S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Banu S;Guo Y;Hu W;Dale P;Mackenzie JS;Mengersen K;Tong S
登革热的动态是由宿主、病媒和病毒之间复杂的相互作用驱动的，这些相互作用受到环境和气候因素的影响。几项研究探讨了厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)在登革热发病中的作用。然而，印度洋偶极子(IOD)是印度洋的一种耦合海洋大气现象，它控制着印度地区的夏季季风降雨，其作用仍未得到探索。在这里，我们研究了ENSO和IOD对孟加拉国登革热发病率的影响。小波相关分析表明，ENSO、IOD与登革热发病率之间的相关性很弱，而与当地气候变量(气温和降雨量)的相关性非常显著。然而，分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)显示，在对当地气候变量、季节性和趋势进行调整后，登革热发病率与ENSO或IOD之间的关联相对较强。对ENSO和IOD的估计效应都是非线性的，在较高的ENSO和IOD时相对风险更高。ENSO、IOD和登革热发病率之间的弱相关性可能是由于气温和降雨量等当地气候变量的较强影响所致。需要进一步的研究来理清这些影响。
Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.