The dynamics of criminal nehavior - Evidence from weather shocks
The dynamics of criminal nehavior - Evidence from weather shocks
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DOI：
10.3368/jhr.xlii.3.489
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发表时间：
2007-06-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Moretti, Enrico
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jacob, Brian;Lefgren, Lars;Moretti, Enrico
虽然犯罪活动的持续存在是有据可查的，但这可能是由于未被观察到的犯罪决定因素的持续存在。然而，有充分的理由相信，由于时间上的迁移，某一特定地区的犯罪率之间实际上可能存在负相关关系。我们利用天气和犯罪之间的相关性来研究犯罪的短期动态。使用由于天气冲击而滞后的犯罪率的变化，我们发现正序列相关性被逆转。这些研究结果表明，临时预防犯罪工作的长期影响可能小于短期影响。
While the persistence of criminal activity is well documented, this may be due to persistence in the unobserved determinants of crime. There are good reasons to believe, however, that there may actually be a negative relationship between crime rates in a particular area due to temporal displacement. We exploit the correlation between weather and crime to examine the short-run dynamics of crime. Using variation in lagged crime rates due to weather shocks, we find that the positive serial correlation is reversed. These findings suggest that the long-run impact of temporary crime-prevention efforts may be smaller than the short-run effects.