A model for availability growth with application to new generation offshore wind farms
A model for availability growth with application to new generation offshore wind farms
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2015.12.004
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发表时间：
2016-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Zitrou;T. Bedford;L. Walls
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文献类型：
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作者：
A. Zitrou;T. Bedford;L. Walls
为了在构建复杂系统之前捕捉系统风险的影响，开发了一个可用性增长模型。该模型是由新一代海上风电场推动的，在获得测试和运营数据之前，需要做出投资决定。我们开发了一个通用模型来捕捉进化系统设计中创新所产生的系统性风险。通过对主要和次要干预措施的影响进行建模，以缓解弱点并改进部件的故障和修复过程，我们能够衡量系统可用性性能的增长。我们以典型的英国第三轮海上风电场为例，描述了在对我们特定的工业环境进行建模时所做的选择。在使用适当的判断和经验数据填充模拟模型后，我们获得了预期可获得性的点估计。通过与海上风电应用中典型的系统可用性建模假设所得到的估计值的比较，我们展示了建模系统风险对系统可用性性能的相对影响。虽然对可用性的增长建模对于开发海上风电场等复杂系统的有意义的决策支持是必要的，但我们也讨论了明确表达认知不确定性的相对价值。
A model for availability growth is developed to capture the effect of systemic risk prior to construction of a complex system. The model has been motivated by new generation offshore wind farms where investment decisions need to be taken before test and operational data are available. We develop a generic model to capture the systemic risks arising from innovation in evolutionary system designs. By modelling the impact of major and minor interventions to mitigate weaknesses and to improve the failure and restoration processes of subassemblies, we are able to measure the growth in availability performance of the system. We describe the choices made in modelling our particular industrial setting using an example for a typical UK Round III offshore wind farm. We obtain point estimates of the expected availability having populated the simulated model using appropriate judgemental and empirical data. We show the relative impact of modelling systemic risk on system availability performance in comparison with estimates obtained from typical system availability modelling assumptions used in offshore wind applications. While modelling growth in availability is necessary for meaningful decision support in developing complex systems such as offshore wind farms, we also discuss the relative value of explicitly articulating epistemic uncertainties.