Implications of declining household economies of scale on electricity consumption and sustainability in China
Implications of declining household economies of scale on electricity consumption and sustainability in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.106981
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发表时间：
2021-02-15
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Masui, Toshihiko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu, Wenchao;Kanamori, Yuko;Masui, Toshihiko
中国家庭平均规模在过去几十年里一直在下降，并将继续下降，这导致规模经济的损失。由于中国电力的生态/环境强度很高，而且预计需求将大幅增长，因此其对电力需求和可持续性的影响可能特别深远。利用2010年至2016年具有全国代表性的家庭调查小组，我们发现了大量的家庭用电规模经济。具体来说，减少一个家庭规模会导致17.0？消费增长23.6%。我们进一步评估了中国的生态/环境影响。CO2排放量、取水量、烟尘排放量、SO2排放量、NOx排放量和工业废水排放量随着家庭规模的减小而增加。例如，到2030年将家庭规模减少0.5人（减少到2.5人）？与2015年的水平相比，2035年可能导致二氧化碳排放量增加0.5%，取水量增加0.3%。二氧化碳排放量的增加几乎等于葡萄牙的总排放量。因此，必须将规模效应纳入能源需求预测和可持续性评估。研究结果还强调了向清洁能源过渡的紧迫性，因为全球家庭规模正在缩小。
The average household size in China has declined over the past few decades and will continue to drop, which leads to a loss of scale economies. Its implications for electricity demand and sustainability could be especially profound because of the high ecological/environmental intensity of electricity in China and the expected boom in demand. Using nationally representative household survey panels from 2010 to 2016, we identified substantial household scale economies in electricity consumption. Specifically, reducing household size by one incurs a 17.0?23.6% increase in consumption. We further assessed the ecological/environmental implications in China. CO2 emission, water withdrawal, smoke ash emission, SO2 emission, NOx emission, and industrial wastewater discharge were found to increase with a smaller household size. For example, a household size reduction of 0.5 (to 2.5 members) by 2030?2035 could result in a 0.5% increase in CO2 emission and a 0.3% increase in water withdrawal as compared with the levels in 2015. The increase in CO2 emission is almost equal to the entire emissions of Portugal. It is therefore essential to incorporate scale effect into energy demand projections and sustainability assessments. The results also highlight the urgency in transitioning to cleaner energy since household size shrinkage is occurring globally.