Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops
Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops
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DOI：
10.1016/s0167-8809(00)00224-3
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发表时间：
2000-12-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Prasad, PVV
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wheeler, TR;Craufurd, PQ;Prasad, PVV
全球一年生作物的产量将受到预计到21世纪末平均气温上升2-4摄氏度的影响。在温带地区，现有的一年生有限生育期作物品种将提前成熟，因此产量将因气温升高而下降。然而，气温升高的这种负面影响应通过在大气CO2浓度升高的情况下增加作物生长速度来抵消，至少在有足够水的情况下是这样。对一年生种子作物产量更重要的可能是与温暖的平均气候有关的热（或冷）温度频率的变化。本文的目的是审查证据的重要性，在每年的作物产量的温度变化，并考虑如何预测这些事件的影响。证据的重要性，温度的变化，独立于任何实质性的变化，平均季节温度，一年生作物的产量。种子产量对短暂的高温特别敏感，如果这些高温与作物发育的关键阶段相吻合。开花时的高温会减少随后有助于作物产量的种子或谷物的潜在数量。确定了三个研究需求，以提供一个框架，预测炎热的温度对一年生作物产量的影响：可靠的季节性天气预报，作物发育的稳健预测，以及作物模拟模型，能够量化短暂的炎热温度对种子产量的影响。(C)2000 Elsevier Science B. V.保留所有权利。
Global production of annual crops will be affected by the increases in mean temperatures of 2-4 degreesC expected towards the end of the 21st century. Within temperate regions, current cultivars of determinate annual crops will mature earlier, and hence yields will decline in response to warmer temperatures. Nevertheless, this negative effect of warmer temperatures should be countered by the increased rate of crop growth at elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, at least when there is sufficient water. Of more importance for the yield of annual seed crops may be changes in the frequency of hot (or cold) temperatures which are associated with warmer mean climates. The objectives of this paper are to review evidence for the importance of variability in temperature for annual crop yields, and to consider how the impacts of these events may be predicted. Evidence is presented for the importance of variability in temperature, independent of any substantial changes in mean seasonal temperature, for the yield of annual crops. Seed yields are particularly sensitive to brief episodes of hot temperatures if these coincide with critical stages of crop development. Hot temperatures at the time of flowering can reduce the potential number of seeds or grains that subsequently contribute to the crop yield. Three research needs are identified in order to provide a framework for predicting the impact of episodes of hot temperatures on the yields of annual crops: reliable seasonal weather forecasts, robust predictions of crop development, and crop simulation models which are able to quantify the effects of brief episodes of hot temperatures on seed yield. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.