Phylodynamics reveals extinction-recolonization dynamics underpin apparently endemic vampire bat rabies in Costa Rica
Phylodynamics reveals extinction-recolonization dynamics underpin apparently endemic vampire bat rabies in Costa Rica
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2019.1527
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发表时间：
2019-10-02
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Leon, Bernal
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Streicker, Daniel G.;Fallas Gonzalez, Silvia Lucia;Leon, Bernal
野生动物发病率的变化通常被认为反映了环境或人口变化对地方病病原体的作用。然而，明显的地方性可能是由空间过程引起的，而这些空间过程很难从包括时间序列和实地研究在内的传统数据来源中确定。在这里，我们分析了从哥斯达黎加14年来狂犬病病毒暴发中收集的纵向序列数据，哥斯达黎加是一个中美洲国家，自1985年以来一直记录着人类和牲畜中吸血蝙蝠传播的狂犬病暴发。我们确定了五个遗传学上不同的谱系，它们与来自北美和南美的病毒共享最近的共同祖先。贝叶斯地理重建支持双向病毒传播，涉及国家的北部和南部的哥斯达黎加在不同的时间点。在哥斯达黎加内，病毒几乎没有显示出同期的空间重叠，在所有年份的监测中都没有检测到谱系。统计模型表明，谱系的消失更可能是由病毒传播而不是未检测到的病毒循环来解释的。我们的研究结果强调了国际病毒传播的重要性，形成狂犬病的负担在哥斯达黎加，建议中美洲走廊的狂犬病病毒入侵大陆之间，并表明，明显的疾病地方性可能会出现通过经常性的病原体预防和再侵染，可以很容易地检测到在相对较小的数据集，通过加入动态和建模方法。
Variation in disease incidence in wildlife is often assumed to reflect environmental or demographic changes acting on an endemic pathogen. However, apparent endemicity might instead arise from spatial processes that are challenging to identify from traditional data sources including time series and field studies. Here, we analysed longitudinal sequence data collected from rabies virus outbreaks over 14 years in Costa Rica, a Central American country that has recorded continuous vampire bat-transmitted rabies outbreaks in humans and livestock since 1985. We identified five phylogenetically distinct lineages which shared most recent common ancestors with viruses from North and South America. Bayesian phylogeographic reconstructions supported bidirectional viral dispersals involving countries to the north and south of Costa Rica at different time points. Within Costa Rica, viruses showed little contemporaneous spatial overlap and no lineage was detected across all years of surveillance. Statistical models suggested that lineage disappearances were more likely to be explained by viral extinctions than undetected viral circulation. Our results highlight the importance of international viral dispersal for shaping the burden of rabies in Costa Rica, suggest a Central American corridor of rabies virus invasions between continents, and show that apparent disease endemicity may arise through recurrent pathogen extinctions and reinvasions which can be readily detected in relatively small datasets by joining phylodynamic and modelling approaches.