research paper series China and the World Economy Research Paper 2006 / 21 Has China Displaced Other Asian Countries ’ Exports ?
research paper series China and the World Economy Research Paper 2006 / 21 Has China Displaced Other Asian Countries ’ Exports ?
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研究论文系列 中国与世界经济 研究论文 2006 / 21 中国是否已取代其他亚洲国家的出口？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Milner
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Greenaway;A. Mahabir;C. Milner
本文使用引力模型来探讨在1990-2003年期间，中国出口的增长是否以及如何取代其他亚洲国家对第三市场的出口。中国出口的定义既有狭义的，也有广义的，包括香港的出口。我们调查是否对亚洲出口的位移效应不同时，从香港和中国的出口相结合的狭义情况下，只有中国的出口。进行了综合和分类分析。在后者中，我们探讨了在亚洲国家之间以及与不同类型国家的贸易中，位移效应是否存在差异。我们发现了替代效应的证据，这种效应在发达市场更为明显，而在香港和中国大陆则更为明显。此外，高收入的亚洲出口国经历了更大的位移效应。我们还调查了中国的发展是否对其邻国对中国的出口产生了任何抵消效应，并发现中国的增长确实增加了中国从样本中的亚洲国家，特别是日本和韩国的进口。JEL分类：F14外形
This paper uses gravity modelling to explore whether and how the growth of China’s exports is displacing exports of other Asian countries to third markets over the period 1990-2003. Chinese exports are defined both narrowly and more broadly to include exports from Hong Kong. We investigate whether the displacement effect on Asian exports differs when exports from Hong Kong and China are combined compared to the narrow case of Chinese exports only. Aggregate and disaggregated analyses are undertaken. In the latter, we explore whether the displacement effect varies across Asian countries and in trade with different types of countries. We find evidence of a displacement effect which is more pronounced in developed markets and stronger for Hong Kong and China combined. Further it is the high income Asian exporters that experienced a greater displacement effect. We also investigate whether China’s development has generated any offsetting effects on its neighbours’ exports to China itself and find that Chinese growth has indeed increased China’s imports from the Asian countries in the sample and in particular Japan and Korea. JEL classification: F14 Outline