Spatial-temporal heterogeneity of hand, foot and mouth disease and impact of meteorological factors in arid/ semi-arid regions: a case study in Ningxia, China
Spatial-temporal heterogeneity of hand, foot and mouth disease and impact of meteorological factors in arid/ semi-arid regions: a case study in Ningxia, China
复制标题
干旱/半干旱地区手足口病时空异质性及气象因素影响——以宁夏为例
DOI：
10.1186/s12889-019-7758-1
复制
发表时间：
2019-11-08
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Wang, Fang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Jie;Zhang, Xiangxue;Wang, Fang
背景手足口病（HFMD）的发病率随时间和空间的变化而变化，这种变化与气候和社会经济因素有关。大多数关于手足口病的研究都是在潮湿地区进行的，而很少有集中在干旱/半干旱地区的疾病，在这样的气候条件下，更多的研究可能会使手足口病的传播机制更清晰在不同的气候条件下MethodsIn this paper，我们探索了手足口病在宁夏省，这是一个干旱/半干旱的气候在中国西北地区的时空分布。我们首先采用贝叶斯时空层次模型（BSTHM）评估了宁夏2009 - 2013年手足口病病例的时空异质性及其与气象因素的关系，然后使用一种新的空间统计软件包GeoDetector来测试空间-结果宁夏北方地区手足口病的空间相对危险度高于北方地区，而北方地区的相对危险度高于北方地区。南秋季发病率最高，春季次之。平均气温、相对湿度、风速等气象因子对手足口病时空分布的影响具有重要作用。
BackgroundThe incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) varies over space and time and this variability is related to climate and social-economic factors. Majority of studies on HFMD were carried out in humid regions while few have focused on the disease in arid/semi-arid regions, more research in such climates would potentially make the mechanism of HFMD transmission clearer under different climate conditions.MethodsIn this paper, we explore spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD in Ningxia province, which has an arid/semi-arid climate in northwest China. We first employed a Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) to assess the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of the HFMD cases and its relationship with meteorological factors in Ningxia from 2009 to 2013, then used a novel spatial statistical software package GeoDetector to test the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of HFMD risk.ResultsThe results showed that the spatial relative risks in northern part of Ningxia were higher than those in the south. The highest temporal risk of HFMD incidence was in fall season, with a secondary peak in spring. Meteorological factors, such as average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed played significant roles in the spatial-temporal distribution of HFMD risk.ConclusionsThe study provide valuable information on HFMD distribution in arid/semi-arid areas in northwest China and facilitate understanding of the concentration of HFMD.